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Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling.

机译：通过遥感和物种分布模型对全球变化对生物多样性的影响进行推断性监测。

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The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes.;Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques.;Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this methodology to redefine species ranges in a more biophysically reasonable way.;If a specific variable is important for a species, a change in that variable is likely to impact the species. Chapter 3 presents a methodology to identify the impact of environmental changes on 6362 species of mammals, amphibians and birds of South America, based on per-species measures of sensitivity, marginality, range restriction and trends in remotely sensed bioclimatic variables. Maps of the impact of environmental changes on vertebrates of South America were generated, with the Andes, Patagonia and the Atlantic Forest experiencing the strongest impact of environmental change in this over the past quarter century.;Contributions of this dissertation include the development of new range polygons for all mammals, amphibians and birds of South America, as well as a methodology to re-draw the polygons in any other region of the world. This dataset is essential for both biodiversity analysis and conservation prioritization. Other contributions are the generation of maps of impact of global change on biodiversity, together with a framework for the development and updating of those maps. Conservation and monitoring agencies will find this research useful not only for the selection of new conservation areas but also for prioritizing areas for field monitoring.
机译：世界正遭受着气候和土地覆盖的快速变化，这是影响全球生物多样性的主要因素。这些变化可能会通过改变物种分布，种群数量和社区组成来影响生态系统，这强调了出于保护和管理目的需要快速评估生物多样性状况的必要性。当前监测生物多样性的方法主要依靠对预定地点的长期观察，这需要大量的时间，金钱和人员来执行。为了克服与现有的田间监测方法有关的问题，本论文的主要目的是建立基于遥感数据和物种分布建模技术的全球变化对生物多样性影响的推断监测框架的开发。为了实现这一目标而独立执行。首先，使用物种分布建模来确定南美洲6362种鸟类，哺乳动物和两栖动物的分布范围。第1章比较了不同的仅存在物种分布方法对具有不同对环境梯度和样本量的响应曲线的物种分布进行建模的能力。已经发现，对生境适应性和物种范围建模的方法的功能差异很大，这表明在选择可能使用的方法之前，尽可能对物种分布进行初步梯度分析的重要性。第2章介绍了重新定义物种范围多边形的新方法。使用能够确定现有范围多边形的不确定性的方法，该自动化程序可以识别物种的生物气候变量的相对重要性，预测其范围并生成质量评估报告以探索预测误差。使用独立验证数据进行的分析表明，该方法以更合理的生物物理方式重新定义物种范围的能力。如果特定变量对物种很重要，则该变量的更改可能会影响该物种。第3章介绍了一种方法，该方法基于对物种的敏感性，边缘性，范围限制和遥感生物气候变量趋势的度量，来确定环境变化对南美洲的6362种哺乳动物，两栖动物和鸟类的影响。绘制了环境变化对南美脊椎动物的影响的地图，其中安第斯山脉，巴塔哥尼亚和大西洋森林在过去的25世纪中经历了环境变化的最强烈影响。本论文的贡献包括开发了新的范围南美所有哺乳动物，两栖动物和鸟类的多边形，以及在世界上任何其他地区重新绘制多边形的方法。该数据集对于生物多样性分析和保护优先次序至关重要。其他贡献包括绘制全球变化对生物多样性影响的地图，以及开发和更新这些地图的框架。自然保护区和监测机构将发现这项研究不仅对选择新的自然保护区有用，而且对确定野外监测区的优先次序也很有用。

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