Load flow analysis is an important tool for planning and designing future power systems and for determining optimal system operation. In the case of power generated by wind turbines, the power supply varies randomly. As a result the load flow solution parameters also become random variables. Therefore, for capturing realistic system performance, it is necessary to know the probabilistic behavior of load flow for a given probabilistic behavior of power supply. This paper develops a five point estimation method to calculate probabilistic load flow on systems with high wind power penetration. This new approach incorporates cut-in, cut-out, and constant power blade pitch control. The probabilistic behavior of varying wind speed is based on the Weibull probability distribution which generates a mixture of discrete and continuous distributions for the power distribution functions of the wind farm. These unique features accurately capture the behavior of the wind and wind turbine output. Simulations are run under a number of scenarios using between 118 and 2383 buses: varying wind penetration, varying the number of wind farms, and considering different weather conditions at different wind farms. Finally the five point method simulations are validated by comparing the results with Monte Carlo methods.
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