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Determining the influence of past development experience on the cost of strategic ballistic missile development.

机译：确定过去的开发经验对战略弹道导弹开发成本的影响。

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The influence of learning in the form of past relevant experience was examined in data collected for strategic ballistic missiles developed by the United States. A total of twenty-four new missiles were developed and entered service between 1954 and 1990. Missile development costs were collected and analyzed by regression analysis using the learning curve model with factors for past experience and other relevant cost estimating relationships. The purpose of the study was to determine whether prior development experience was a factor in the development cost of these like systems.;Of the twenty-four missiles in the population, development costs for twelve of the missiles were collected from the literature. Since the costs were found to be segmented by military service, a discrete input variable for military service was used as one of the cost estimating relationships. Because there were only two US Navy samples, too few to analyze for segmentation and learning rate, they were excluded from the final analysis. The final analysis was on a sample of ten out of eighteen US Army and US Air Force missiles within the population.;The result of the analysis found past experience to be a statistically significant factor in describing the development cost of the US Army and US Air Force missiles. The influence equated to a 0.86 progress ratio, indicating prior development experience had a positive (cost-reducing) influence on their development cost. Based on the result, it was concluded that prior development experience was a factor in the development cost of these systems.
机译：在美国为战略弹道导弹收集的数据中，考察了过去相关经验形式的学习的影响。在1954年至1990年之间，总共开发了24枚新型导弹并投入使用。使用学习曲线模型并结合过去的经验因素和其他相关的成本估算关系，通过回归分析收集并分析了导弹的开发成本。该研究的目的是确定以前的开发经验是否是这些类似系统的开发成本的因素。在人口中的二十四枚导弹中，十二枚导弹的开发成本是从文献中收集的。由于发现成本是按兵役划分的，因此将兵役的离散输入变量用作成本估算关系之一。由于只有两个美国海军样本，因此无法进行细分和学习率分析，因此将它们从最终分析中排除。最终分析是根据人口中18枚美国陆军和美国空军导弹中的10枚样本进行的；分析结果发现，过去的经验是描述美国陆军和美国空军发展成本的统计上重要的因素部队导弹。影响等于0.86的进步比率，表明先前的开发经验对其开发成本具有积极的（降低成本）影响。根据结果​​，可以得出结论，先前的开发经验是这些系统开发成本的一个因素。

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