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A study of risk and contingency in highway program management .

机译：公路项目管理中的风险与应急问题研究。

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摘要

This research presents an investigation into the principles of program risk management within the highway construction industry. The research employed several Monte Carlo risk models as well as feedback and interaction with practicing professionals to address the use of program risk management within the industry. The research included a thorough review of project risk management, policy risk management, and program risk management as they relate to the highway construction industry. Definitions for both policy and program risk management were developed. The research developed three models of project, policy, and program risk management and found an increase in the certainty of the total program cost in both the policy and the program models. The research found that although policy and program risk management offered distinct advantages from project risk management, specifically that control of project managers' actions leads to increased certainty of project and program outcomes, the traditional approach of project risk management was preferred for various reasons, primarily that project managers prefer to maintain control of all risk aspects of their project, including contingency that could be applied at the program level.
机译：这项研究提出了对公路建设行业项目风险管理原理的调查。该研究采用了几种蒙特卡洛风险模型，以及与从业专业人员的反馈和互动，以解决行业中计划风险管理的使用。研究包括与公路建设行业相关的项目风险管理，政策风险管理和项目风险管理的全面审查。制定了政策和计划风险管理的定义。该研究开发了项目，政策和计划风险管理的三种模型，并发现在政策和计划模型中总计划成本的确定性有所提高。研究发现，尽管政策和计划风险管理与项目风险管理相比具有明显的优势，特别是控制项目经理的行为可以提高项目和计划结果的确定性，但出于各种原因，首选传统的项目风险管理方法，主要是项目经理更喜欢保持对项目所有风险方面的控制，包括可以在计划级别应用的突发事件。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wilson, Craig Raymond.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Colorado at Boulder.;

  • 授予单位 University of Colorado at Boulder.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 M.C.E.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 170 p.
  • 总页数 170
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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