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Statistical physics approaches to financial fluctuations.

机译:统计物理方法可以解决金融波动问题。

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摘要

Complex systems attract many researchers from various scientific fields. Financial markets are one of these widely studied complex systems. Statistical physics, which was originally developed to study large systems, provides novel ideas and powerful methods to analyze financial markets. The study of financial fluctuations characterizes market behavior, and helps to better understand the underlying market mechanism.;Our study focuses on volatility, a fundamental quantity to characterize financial fluctuations. We examine equity data of the entire U.S. stock market during 2001 and 2002. To analyze the volatility time series, we develop a new approach, called return interval analysis, which examines the time intervals between two successive volatilities exceeding a given value threshold. We find that the return interval distribution displays scaling over a wide range of thresholds. This scaling is valid for a range of time windows, from one minute up to one day. Moreover, our results are similar for commodities, interest rates, currencies, and for stocks of different countries. Further analysis shows some systematic deviations from a scaling law, which we can attribute to nonlinear correlations in the volatility time series. We also find a memory effect in return intervals for different time scales, which is related to the long-term correlations in the volatility.;To further characterize the mechanism of price movement, we simulate the volatility time series using two different models, fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) and fractional Brownian motion (fBm), and test these models with the return interval analysis. We find that both models can mimic time memory but only fBm shows scaling in the return interval distribution.;In addition, we examine the volatility of daily opening to closing and of closing to opening. We find that each volatility distribution has a power law tail. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method, we show long-term auto-correlations in these volatility time series. We also analyze return, the actual price changes of stocks, and find that the returns over the two sessions are often anti-correlated.
机译:复杂的系统吸引了来自各个科学领域的许多研究人员。金融市场是这些被广泛研究的复杂系统之一。统计物理学最初是为研究大型系统而开发的,它提供了新颖的思想和强大的方法来分析金融市场。金融波动的研究表征了市场行为,有助于更好地理解潜在的市场机制。我们的研究重点是波动性,这是表征金融波动的基本量。我们检查了2001年和2002年整个美国股票市场的股票数据。为了分析波动时间序列,我们开发了一种称为收益区间分析的新方法,该方法检查了两次连续波动之间超过给定值阈值的时间间隔。我们发现,返回间隔分布显示出在较大阈值范围内的缩放比例。此缩放在从一分钟到一天的一系列时间范围内有效。此外,对于商品,利率,货币和不同国家的股票,我们的结果相似。进一步的分析显示出与定标律的一些系统偏差,我们可以将其归因于波动率时间序列中的非线性相关性。我们还发现了不同时间范围内收益率区间内的记忆效应,这与波动率的长期相关性有关;为进一步表征价格波动的机制,我们使用两种不同的模型对波动率时间序列进行了模拟,分数积分广义自回归条件异方差(FIGARCH)和分数布朗运动(fBm),并使用返回间隔分析测试这些模型。我们发现这两个模型都可以模仿时间记忆,但是只有fBm可以显示返回间隔分布的缩放比例;此外,我们还研究了每日开盘到开盘以及开盘到开盘的波动性。我们发现每个波动率分布都有幂律尾巴。使用去趋势波动分析(DFA)方法,我们显示了这些波动时间序列中的长期自相关。我们还分析了收益,股票的实际价格变化,发现两个交易日的收益通常是反相关的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wang, Fengzhong.;

  • 作者单位

    Boston University.;

  • 授予单位 Boston University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.;Physics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 117 p.
  • 总页数 117
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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