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Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on snowpack in the St. Mary River watershed, Montana.

机译：在蒙大拿州圣玛丽河流域模拟气候变化对积雪的潜在影响。

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摘要

Climate change poses significant threats to mountain ecosystems in North America (Barnett et al., 2005) and will subsequently impact water supply for human and ecosystem use. To assess these threats, we must have an understanding of the local variability in hydrometeorological conditions over the mountains. This thesis describes the continued development and application of a fine scale spatial hydrometeorological model, GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input). The GENESYS model successfully simulated daily snowpack values for a 10 year trial period and annual runoff volumes for a thirty year period. Based on the results of these simulations the model was applied to estimate potential changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed, Montana. GCM derived future climate scenarios were applied, representing a range of emissions controls and applied to perturb the 1961-90 climate record using the "delta" downscaling technique. The effects of these changes in climate were assessed for thirty year time slices centered on 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The GENESYS simulations of future climate showed that mountain snowpack was highly vulnerable to changes in temperature and to a lesser degree precipitation. A seasonal shift to an earlier onset of spring melt and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow occurred under all climate change scenarios. Results of mean and maximum snowpack were more variable and appeared to be highly dependent on scenario selection. The results demonstrated that although annual volume of available water from snowpack may increase, the seasonal distribution of available water may be significantly altered.
机译：气候变化对北美山区生态系统构成了重大威胁（Barnett等，2005），随后将影响人类和生态系统用水。为了评估这些威胁，我们必须了解山区水文气象条件的局部变化。本文描述了精细尺度空间水文气象模型GENESYS（通用地球系统科学输入）的持续开发和应用。 GENESYS模型成功模拟了10年试用期内的日积雪量和30年期间的年径流量。基于这些模拟的结果，该模型被用于估算蒙大拿州圣玛丽河流域上积雪的潜在变化。应用了GCM得出的未来气候情景，代表了一系列的排放控制，并使用“三角洲”降尺度技术对1961-90年气候记录进行了扰动。对这些气候变化的影响进行了以2020年代，2050年代和2080年代为中心的三十年时间范围的评估。 GENESYS对未来气候的模拟表明，山区积雪极易受到温度变化和较小程度的降水的影响。在所有气候变化情景下，春季融化的季节都会发生变化，降雨和降雪的比率也会增加。平均积雪和最大积雪的结果变化更大，并且似乎高度依赖于情景选择。结果表明，尽管每年从积雪中获取的可用水量可能会增加，但是可用水的季节性分布可能会发生重大变化。

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  • 作者

    MacDonald, Ryan J.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Lethbridge (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Lethbridge (Canada).;
  • 学科 Physical Geography.;Environmental Sciences.;Climate Change.;Hydrology.
  • 学位 M.Sc.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 103 p.
  • 总页数 103
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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