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首页> 外文学位 >Development of optimized flood control rule curves for the Columbia River Basin in response to climate change and interannual climate variability.
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Development of optimized flood control rule curves for the Columbia River Basin in response to climate change and interannual climate variability.

机译：针对气候变化和年际气候变化，针对哥伦比亚河流域开发优化的防洪规则曲线。

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摘要

Water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other system objectives are usually predicated on assumptions of stationary climate conditions derived from historic streamflow records. Recent climate research has demonstrated, however, that systematic changes in temperature are occurring in response to global warming and other factors, and that regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales. These short- to long-term non-stationary elements of the climate system are investigated to determine if it is possible to improve dam operations for flood control. An optimization-simulation approach is developed and explored as an objective and well-defined procedure to improve system operations in response to the effects of global warming and by creating flood rule curves conditioned by seasonal to interannual climate forecasts at a monthly time scale and a daily time scale.;The optimization model is calibrated using eighty-six years of 20 th century monthly flow by tuning the objective function to reproduce the current reliability of reservoir refill without increase of flood risks. After the optimization model is calibrated, the same objective function is used to develop flood control curves for a global warming scenario which assumes an approximately 2°C increase in air temperature. Robust decreases in system storage deficits are simulated for the climate change scenario when optimized flood rule curves replace the current flood control curves, without increasing monthly flood risks.;A daily time step simulation model is used in Kootenai Basin portion of the upper Columbia Basin to test and refine the optimized flood control curves derived from monthly time step. This basin is chosen because releases from two major dams (Libby and Duncan) are constrained by water levels at Cora Linn Dam that were developed in a 1938 agreement of the International Joint Commission (IJC). For daily time step simulation which doesn't consider hydropower generation, general release from Libby and Duncan Dams is required during winter and spring to avoid the conflicts with the 1938 IJC agreement and required flood evacuation at Libby and Duncan Dams, while the maximum flood space and refill timing are kept from the monthly analysis. After modifying the evacuation schedule, the conclusions from the monthly time scale prove robust at daily time scales. Due to decrease of July storage deficits, additional benefits such as more revenue from hydropower generation and more July and August outflow for fish augmentation are observed when the optimized flood control curves are used for a climate change scenario.;The benefit of incorporating El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information (cool, neutral, warm) in designing flood control curves is also investigated at a monthly time step. ENSO conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate penalty functions for each ENSO state. ENSO conditioned rule curves using a unique objective function for each of the three ENSO states offer advantages in terms of storage deficits over current operations, and over optimal flood rule curves based on an unconditioned, single objective function.
机译：试图在洪水风险与其他系统目标之间保持平衡的水资源运营政策通常是基于从历史流量记录中得出的稳定气候条件的假设来确定的。然而，最近的气候研究表明，由于全球变暖和其他因素，温度正在发生系统的变化，区域气候在年际和年代际尺度上变化。对气候系统的这些短期至长期的非平稳要素进行了研究，以确定是否有可能改善大坝的防洪作业。优化和仿真方法的开发和探索是一种客观且定义明确的程序，以响应全球变暖的影响并通过以每月和每天的时间尺度从季节性到年际气候预测为条件创建洪水规则曲线来改善系统运行优化模型使用20世纪八十六年的月流量进行校准，方法是调整目标函数，以在不增加洪水风险的情况下重现当前储层注水的可靠性。在对优化模型进行校准之后，使用相同的目标函数来为全球变暖情景（假定气温升高约2°C）制定洪水控制曲线。当优化的洪水规则曲线代替当前的洪水控制曲线而没有增加每月洪水风险时，针对气候变化情景模拟了系统存储赤字的稳步下降。在哥伦比亚盆地上部的Kootenai盆地部分，采用了每日时间步长模拟模型来测试并优化从每月时间步长得出的优化防洪曲线。选择该流域是因为两个大型水坝（利比和邓肯）的排放受到国际联合委员会（IJC）在1938年达成的协议所开发的Cora Linn大坝水位的限制。对于不考虑水力发电的日常时间步长模拟，需要在冬季和春季从利比和邓肯大坝放行，以避免与1938年IJC协议发生冲突，并要求在利比和邓肯大坝撤离洪水，而最大洪水空间和补充时间不会出现在每月分析中。修改疏散时间表后，每月时间表的结论在每日时间表上证明是可靠的。由于减少了7月份的存储赤字，当将优化的洪水控制曲线用于气候变化情景时，可以观察到更多的好处，例如水力发电的更多收入以及7月和8月更多的鱼类增产流出。还以每月的时间步长研究设计防洪曲线时的南方涛动（ENSO）信息（凉，中性，温暖）。在当前操作策略下，以ENSO为条件的模拟洪水风险和存储赤字用于校准每个ENSO状态的惩罚函数。对于三个ENSO状态中的每个状态，使用唯一目标函数的ENSO条件规则曲线在存储不足方面优于当前操作，并且在基于无条件单目标函数的最佳洪水规则曲线方面具有优势。

著录项

  • 作者

    Lee, Se-Yeun.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Washington.;

  • 授予单位 University of Washington.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Engineering Environmental.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 8 p.
  • 总页数 8
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:19

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