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Essays on structural macroeconometrics.

机译:关于结构宏观计量经济学的论文。

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摘要

This dissertation explores the relationship between monetary policy and economic fluctuations within the context of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. I use Bayesian maximum likelihood methods to estimate the structural parameters of such models for the United States (U.S.) and 23 emerging market economies. Using these structural parameter estimates I conduct counterfactual experiments to explore the economic implications of alternative monetary policy regimes.;The first chapter estimates an open economy monetary DSGE model of South Africa to characterize the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) monetary policy rule. I find that the SARB has a stable monetary policy rule very much in line with those estimated for Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and UK. The distinguishing characteristics of the SARB's rule relative to these other four countries are a somewhat larger weight on output and a very low weight on the exchange rate. Relative to other 20 emerging market economies, the policy reaction function of the SARB appears to be much more stable.;The second chapter analyzes the fiscal and monetary policy responses and their effects on output in a set of 22 external financial crisis episodes occurred since 1990. I find evidence that those countries that tightened monetary and fiscal policy during these crises experienced larger output contractions than countries that followed a looser policy stance.;The third chapter uses a monetary DSGE model with credit market imperfections to estimate the role of credit market shocks and monetary policy in U.S. business cycles. The estimated model captures much of the historical narrative regarding the conduct of monetary policy and developments in financial markets that led to episodes of financial excess and distress over the last two decades. The estimation suggests that credit market shocks are an important factor behind economic fluctuations accounting for 15% of the variance in real output since 1985. Monetary policy is also an important force behind real output fluctuations explaining 12.5% of its variance.
机译:本文探讨了动态随机一般均衡模型下货币政策与经济波动之间的关系。我使用贝叶斯最大似然方法来估算美国(美国)和23个新兴市场经济体的此类模型的结构参数。使用这些结构参数估计,我进行了反事实实验,以探索替代货币政策制度的经济含义。第一章估计了南非的开放经济货币DSGE模型,以表征南非储备银行(SARB)的货币政策规则。我发现SARB的货币政策规则非常稳定,与澳大利亚,加拿大,新西兰和英国的货币政策规则非常一致。相对于其他四个国家而言,SARB规则的显着特征是产出权重稍大,汇率权重极低。相对于其他20个新兴市场经济体,SARB的政策反应功能似乎要稳定得多。第二章分析了1990年以来发生的22次外部金融危机中的财政和货币政策反应及其对产出的影响。我发现有证据表明,在那些危机中收紧货币和财政政策的国家比那些采取宽松政策立场的国家经历了更大的产出收缩;第三章使用了具有信贷市场缺陷的货币DSGE模型来估计信贷市场冲击的作用。美国经济周期中的货币政策。估计的模型包含了有关货币政策的行为和金融市场发展的许多历史叙述,在过去的二十年中导致了金融过剩和困境的发生。该估计表明,信贷市场冲击是造成经济波动的重要因素,自1985年以来,经济波动占实际产出差异的15%。货币政策也是解释实际产出波动的重要因素,解释了其12.5%的差异。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ortiz Bolanos, Alberto.;

  • 作者单位

    Boston University.;

  • 授予单位 Boston University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 131 p.
  • 总页数 131
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;经济学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:25

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