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Hedging future uncertainty: A framework for obsolescence prediction, proactive mitigation and management.

机译:规避未来不确定性:过时预测,主动缓解和管理的框架。

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摘要

Component obsolescence in the "high-tech" electronics industry has become a problem that cannot be ignored. Although recent attention has been given to component obsolescence, in general this issue is still dealt with reactively. This often results in sustainment of a long-life system such as ships, airplanes, power plant, and space based programs to be extremely costly. In addition, delayed schedules, extended downtimes, and technology lags are common occurrences in approaches that deal with obsolescence as it occurs. In wake of the rapid pace of technology innovation, turbulent markets and growing globalization, developing proactive approaches for dealing with obsolescence is a necessity for companies to remain competitive in the marketplace. Thus this dissertation focuses on three fundamental objectives that highlight the importance, provide new insight, and offer solutions to the problem of component obsolescence.;The first objective concentrates on the importance of prediction models in determining the life cycle of a component. Obsolescence prediction is key in identifying the items most vulnerable and allows the company to effectively hedge against future uncertainty long before the problem arises.;The second objective concentrates on proactive management approaches. This is accomplished through a case study with an industry partner. The purpose of an obsolescence management strategy is to ensure that, issues of obsolescence are anticipated, identified, analyzed, mitigated, reported, and dealt with in a cost effective and timely manner. In addition, it provides life cycle "support and guidance" to the management team.;Dealing intelligently with flexibility and uncertainty is characteristic of the Real Options Pricing approach. Thus, the third objective concentrates on options pricing as a decision making tool for mitigating the effects of obsolescence. Making strategic decisions about when to invest, what technology to invest in, waiting until a future point in time when a new technology may be available, are all complex questions to answer. Real options pricing offers a novel approach to addressing issues of obsolescence in sustainment based technologies. Thus this dissertation demonstrates that obsolescence prediction, proactive management and mitigation and the use of real options is key in determining optimal decisions and staying competitive in the "high-tech" electronics industry.
机译:“高科技”电子行业中的组件淘汰已经成为一个不可忽视的问题。尽管最近已对组件过时给予了关注,但总的来说,此问题仍是被动处理的。这通常导致维持寿命长的系统(例如船舶,飞机,发电厂和基于太空的程序)非常昂贵。此外,延迟的计划,延长的停机时间和技术滞后在处理过时的方法中很常见。随着技术创新的迅速发展,动荡的市场和日益增长的全球化,开发积极主动的方法来应对过时是企业保持市场竞争力的必要条件。因此,本论文着重于三个基本目标,这些目标凸显了重要性,提供了新的见识并为组件过时的问题提供了解决方案。第一个目标集中于预测模型在确定组件生命周期中的重要性。过时预测是识别最脆弱项目的关键,并使公司能够在问题出现之前很早就有效地对付未来的不确定性。第二个目标集中在主动管理方法上。这是通过与行业合作伙伴进行案例研究来完成的。淘汰管理策略的目的是确保以经济高效且及时的方式预期,识别,分析,缓解,报告和处理淘汰问题。此外,它为管理团队提供生命周期的“支持和指导”。实物期权定价方法的特点是灵活,不确定地智能处理。因此,第三个目标集中于期权定价作为减轻过时影响的决策工具。做出有关何时投资,投资哪种技术,等到可能有新技术的未来时间点的战略决策,都是需要回答的复杂问题。实物期权定价提供了一种新颖的方法来解决基于持续性技术的过时问题。因此,本论文证明了过时的预测,主动的管理和缓解以及使用实物期权是确定最佳决策并在“高科技”电子行业中保持竞争力的关键。

著录项

  • 作者

    Josias, Craig L.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Massachusetts Amherst.;

  • 授予单位 University of Massachusetts Amherst.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 169 p.
  • 总页数 169
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 一般工业技术;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:25

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