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A macroeconomic analysis of investment under Public-Private Partnerships and its policy implications---the case of developing countries.

机译：对公私伙伴关系下投资的宏观经济分析及其政策含义-发展中国家的情况。

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摘要

The objective of the present dissertation is to propose a theoretical model of the decision to invest under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) contract and to test empirically both the determinants of such investment and its economic impact.;The basic theoretical model proposed in the dissertation outlines the conditions for the optimal timing and the scale of monopoly production associated with the decision to invest in a PPP project, in which the two partners fully cooperate. Based on the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty, it concludes that the optimal decision to invest under a PPP depends negatively on the risk and uncertainty associated with the project, and the real cost of capital, while it could be underpinned when the government tax burden and the associated cost of taxation is high. Two extensions of the theoretical model conclude that PPP arrangements (i) have the potential to diversify risk, when risks facing the private and the public partners are correlated; (ii) may provide the private partner with the possibility to exit the contract at a later stage should economic conditions deteriorate; through contract renegotiation, explicit or implicit government guarantees, or bailing-out expectations, PPP offer a put option that induces the private partner to undertake the investment more readily or in a larger amount even under higher uncertainty. Together with the findings of the basic model, this results in an ambiguous effect of uncertainty on PPP investment.;The theoretical predictions of what determines the decision to invest under PPP programs, as well as the potential economic impact of PPP investment, are tested empirically for the case of developing countries, using the World Bank database on private participation in infrastructure for the period 1990-2005. This is the largest database of this kind, which uses a consistent methodology across developing countries and time to record investment commitments in four infrastructure sectors: transportation, energy, water and sewerage, and telecommunication.;As regards the determinants of investment under PPP, several predictions of the basic theoretical model are confirmed by the empirical analysis, while the evidence for the others is weaker or difficult to control for empirically. One measure of risk proves to be a robust determinant of PPP investment, that is, the political risk through its component of investment profile risk. Two other measures seem to be significantly associated with the number of PPP infrastructure projects initiated in developing countries over the period 1990-2005, that is, exchange rate uncertainty and uncertainty regarding public investment. Similarly, as indicated by the theoretical model, a higher tax burden is likely to induce governments to engage in larger PPP programs. Another prediction of the theoretical model---that the nominal lending interest rate is likely to have a negative effect on PPP investment---is weakly confirmed by the empirical model in the whole sample, but it turns more robust in the restricted sample of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries where PPP programs are more developed. Finally, the empirical analysis provides evidence as to other significant determinants of PPP investment, that is: (i) the experience with PPP programs; (ii) the size of the economy; (iii) complementarity with private investment; (iv) external aid; (v) time and regional dummies.;As regards the impact of PPP investment, at a macroeconomic level, larger PPP programs in infrastructure may induce, on balance, higher fiscal risks for governments in developing countries through the attached explicit or implicit contingent liabilities. However, they may also contribute to improving fiscal positions in the future through higher upfront payments to the government or by substituting part of public investment. In several countries of Latin America, private investment in roads may have been a factor associated with higher economic growth since the mid-80s.;The qualitative analysis based on the literature review, as well as the results of the theoretical and empirical models, indicate that, while the experience with PPP in developing countries has been mixed, there is overall more evidence in favor of undertaking PPP investment.
机译：本文的目的是提出一种根据公私合营（PPP）合同进行投资的决策的理论模型，并通过实证检验这种投资的决定因素及其经济影响。论文概述了最佳投资时机的条件和与决定购买PPP项目相关的垄断生产规模，在该项目中两个合作伙伴充分合作。基于不确定性下的不可逆投资理论，得出的结论是，购买力平价下的最优投资决策与项目相关的风险和不确定性以及实际的资本成本负相关，而在政府税收负担重重的情况下它可以得到支持。而且相关的税​​收成本很高。理论模型的两个扩展得出的结论是，当私人和公共合作伙伴面临的风险相关时，PPP安排（i）可以分散风险。 （ii）如果经济状况恶化，可以为私人合伙人在稍后阶段退出合同的可能性；通过合同重新谈判，明确或隐含的政府担保或救助预期，PPP提供了认沽期权，即使在不确定性较高的情况下，诱使私人合伙人也更容易或更大量地进行投资。结合基本模型的发现，这将导致不确定性对PPP投资产生不确定性影响;;对PPP项目决定投资决定的理论预测以及PPP投资的潜在经济影响进行了经验检验对于发展中国家，则使用世界银行关于1990-2005年期间私人参与基础设施建设的数据库。这是此类数据库中最大的数据库，在发展中国家和时间上使用一致的方法来记录以下四个基础设施部门的投资承诺：运输，能源，水和污水处理以及电信。关于PPP下的投资决定因素，有几个基本理论模型的预测通过经验分析得到证实，而其他理论的证据则在经验上较弱或难以控制。一种风险度量被证明是PPP投资的有力决定因素，即通过其投资概况风险的组成部分带来的政治风险。 1990-2005年期间，发展中国家发起的PPP基础设施项目数量似乎与其他两项措施有显着关联，即汇率不确定性和公共投资方面的不确定性。同样，如理论模型所示，较高的税收负担可能会诱使政府参与更大的PPP项目。理论模型的另一种预测-名义贷款利率可能会对PPP投资产生负面影响--整个样本中的经验模型很少证实这种预测，但是在有限的样本中它变得更加稳健。 PPP项目更发达的拉丁美洲和加勒比（LAC）国家。最后，实证分析为购买力平价投资的其他重要决定因素提供了证据，即：（i）购买力平价计划的经验； （ii）经济规模； （iii）与私人投资的互补； （iv）外部援助； （v）时间和地域的虚拟化；关于PPP投资的影响，在宏观经济水平上，较大的PPP项目在基础设施上可能会通过附带的显性或隐性或有负债，在总体上给发展中国家的政府带来更高的财政风险。但是，它们也可能通过提高对政府的预付款或替代部分公共投资来改善未来的财政状况。自80年代中期以来，在拉丁美洲的一些国家/地区，道路的私人投资可能是与较高的经济增长相关的因素。基于文献综述的定性分析以及理论和经验模型的结果表明这就是说，尽管发展中国家在购买力平价方面的经验参差不齐，但总体上有更多的证据支持进行购买力平价投资。

著录项

  • 作者

    Checherita, Cristina D.;

  • 作者单位

    George Mason University.;

  • 授予单位 George Mason University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 181 p.
  • 总页数 181
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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