• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文学位 >Defining risk assessment confidence levels for use in project management communications.
【24h】

Defining risk assessment confidence levels for use in project management communications.

机译：定义风险评估置信度，以用于项目管理沟通。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A review of the literature regarding risk management and effective risk communications identified that very few researchers have addressed risk assessment confidence levels when using risk scoring methods. The focus of this research is to develop a definition of risk assessment confidence levels for use in internal project management communications and to evaluate its usefulness. This research defines risk assessment confidence level as "The degree of certainty that the likelihood or consequence score (assigned by the risk assessor) reflects reality." A specific level of confidence is defined based on the types of analyses that were conducted to determine the risk score.;A survey method was used to obtain data from a representative sample of risk assessment professionals from industry and academia to measure their opinion on the usefulness of the defined risk assessment confidence levels. The survey consisted of seven questions related to usefulness---four questions addressed the importance of stating confidence levels in risk assessments and three addressed the usableness of the proposed confidence level. Data were collected on the role and experience level of each of the respondents and the survey also included a comment section to obtain additional feedback.;The survey generated 364 respondents representing a broad variety of roles associated with decision making and risk management with experience levels from fairly new to experienced risk assessors. The survey data were analyzed by calculating the proportion of respondents who gave negative, neutral and positive responses to the survey questions. An examination of the roles of the survey respondents indicated that no single group was dominant. A non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test generally failed to reject the hypothesis that the means of the survey response distributions were identical. There was one exception which indicated that there are differences based on role and by inspection of the responses, it appears that decision makers, academics, and others more strongly support the need for confidence level information to reduce the difficulty in making risk based decisions in projects.;The survey responses at a confidence level of 95% have a range of errors from 3.84 to 4.97%. Based on the results of the survey, 77--83% of those surveyed indicated agreement that knowing the confidence the assessors have in their assessment is important and would improve a management decision. The survey showed that 60--86% of the respondents agreed that the confidence levels and their definitions as presented in the survey were usable. The question with the lowest agreement (60%) was related to the way in which the individual levels were defined. The ad-hoc comments provided in the survey were divided into eleven groups based on similarity of the subject of the comment and then examined for common themes. These added additional insight into the results and useful information for future research efforts.;This research validates that the use of risk assessment confidence levels is considered to be useful in project risk management. The research also identified several potential areas for future work, including determining the appropriate number of confidence levels that should be defined, refining the definition of the individual confidence level definitions, examining historical perspectives of whether the risk assessments were accurate, examining the concept of shiftability of risk assessments, further research on communication of variability of risk assessments, and research into the usefulness of risk matrices.
机译：对有关风险管理和有效风险沟通的文献的回顾表明，很少有研究人员在使用风险评分方法时处理过风险评估的置信度。这项研究的重点是为内部项目管理沟通中使用的风险评估置信度定义一个定义，并评估其有用性。这项研究将风险评估的置信度定义为“可能性或结果得分（由风险评估者分配）反映现实的确定性程度”。基于确定风险得分的分析类型，定义了特定的置信度。使用调查方法从行业和学术界的风险评估专业人员的代表性样本中获取数据，以评估他们对有用性的意见定义的风险评估置信度。该调查包括七个与有用性有关的问题，其中四个问题涉及在风险评估中陈述置信度的重要性，三个问题涉及建议的置信度的可用性。收集了有关每个受访者的角色和经验水平的数据，该调查还包括一个评论部分以获得更多反馈。该调查产生了364名受访者，代表与决策和风险管理相关的各种角色，其经验水平为对于经验丰富的风险评估师而言，这是相当陌生的。通过计算对调查问题给出负面，中性和正面回答的受访者比例来分析调查数据。对受访者角色的调查表明，没有哪个群体占主导地位。非参数Kruskal-Wallis检验通常无法拒绝调查回答分布均值相同的假设。有一个例外情况表明，根据角色和对答复的检查存在差异，看来决策者，学者和其他人更强烈地支持对置信度信息的需求，以减少在项目中做出基于风险的决策的难度。;置信度为95％的调查回答的误差范围为3.84至4.97％。根据调查结果，有77--83％的被调查者表示同意，知道评估者对评估的信心很重要，并且可以改善管理决策。该调查显示，有60--86％的受访者同意该调查所显示的置信度及其定义是可用的。一致性最低（60％）的问题与个人级别的定义方式有关。根据评论主题的相似性，将调查中提供的临时评论分为11组，然后检查共同主题。这些为结果提供了更多的见解，并为将来的研究工作提供了有用的信息。这项研究证实，使用风险评估置信度被认为对项目风险管理很有用。该研究还确定了未来工作的几个潜在领域，包括确定应定义的适当置信水平数量，完善各个置信水平定义的定义，检查风险评估是否准确的历史观点，检查可转移性的概念。评估风险，进一步交流风险评估的可变性以及研究风险矩阵的有效性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Johnson, Gary L.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Central Florida.;

  • 授予单位 University of Central Florida.;
  • 学科 Engineering General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 165 p.
  • 总页数 165
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 工程基础科学;
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号