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Technological progress in the microprocessor industry.

机译：微处理器行业的技术进步。

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摘要

Microprocessor performance increased at a faster rate in the 1990s than in the decade before or after the 1990s. I examine the possible causes of the acceleration in a model that endogenizes performance. The acceleration could have been caused by an increase in the rate of innovation in the upstream lithography industry which supplies the microprocessor industry with capital equipment embodying new technology which can increase performance. Further investigation is needed to understand the cause of the increase in the rate of innovation in the lithography industry.;Using data from 1971-2008, I infer that performance is a function of the number of transistors and linewidth, which is a measure of the size of each transistor. Reductions in linewidth lead to faster microprocessors and can be made only by adopting new capital equipment supplied by the upstream lithography industry. The three engineering choices---performance, number of transistors, and linewidth---affect the profits of a microprocessor firm. Increasing the number of transistors increases variable costs and moving to a new linewidth involves huge fixed costs associated with using new lithography equipment. In a monopoly model of the industry, the profit maximizing choice of performance and the number of transistors is determined by the timing of adoption of new linewidth. Assuming a Poisson process for the arrival of innovations that reduce linewidth, I characterize the optimal linewidth adoption policy, and the associated optimal time paths of performance, number of transistors, prices and output. The model does well in fitting empirical facts about the industry. An increase in the rate of innovation in the lithography industry changes the linewidth adoption path of the microprocessor firm and causes performance to increase at a faster rate.;In joint work with Sam Kortum and Ana Aizcorbe, I also calculate productivity growth in this industry using growth accounting. Equipment costs are calculated using the implications of a vintage capital model and are then used in the growth accounting exercise. We find that well over half of the real output growth in this industry is the consequence of better technology embodied in new capital equipment.
机译：与1990年代之前或之后的十年相比，1990年代的微处理器性能以更快的速度增长。我检查了导致性能内生的模型中加速的可能原因。加速可能是由于上游光刻行业的创新速度提高而引起的，上游光刻行业为微处理器行业提供了体现新技术的资本设备，这些设备可以提高性能。需要进一步研究，以了解光刻行业创新速度提高的原因。；根据1971-2008年的数据，我推断性能是晶体管数量和线宽的函数，而线宽是衡量晶体管性能的指标。每个晶体管的尺寸。线宽的减小导致微处理器的速度更快，并且只能通过采用上游光刻行业提供的新的资本设备来实现。性能，晶体管数量和线宽这三个工程选择会影响微处理器公司的利润。晶体管数量的增加增加了可变成本，而转移到新的线宽会涉及与使用新光刻设备相关的巨大固定成本。在该行业的垄断模型中，最大化性能选择和晶体管数量的利润取决于采用新线宽的时间。假设采用Poisson工艺来实现减少线宽的创新，我将描述最佳线宽采用策略以及相关的性能，晶体管数量，价格和输出的最佳时间路径。该模型在拟合有关行业的经验事实方面做得很好。光刻行业中创新速度的提高改变了微处理器公司的线宽采用路径，并导致性能以更快的速度提高。与Sam Kortum和Ana Aizcorbe一起，我还使用以下方法计算了该行业的生产率增长增长核算。设备成本是使用老式资本模型的涵义来计算的，然后用于增长核算。我们发现，该行业实际产出增长的一半以上是新资本设备中体现的更好技术的结果。

著录项

  • 作者

    Sadasivan Pillai, Unnikrishnan K.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Minnesota.;

  • 授予单位 University of Minnesota.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 124 p.
  • 总页数 124
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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