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Exploring normative scenarios of land use development decisions with an agent-based simulation laboratory.

机译：与基于代理的模拟实验室一起探索土地用途开发决策的规范方案。

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摘要

Suburbia and exurbia have an undeniable appeal to many urban dwellers. At the same time, they are characterized by an ineffective fragmented residential patchwork of developed and undeveloped tracts. This research addresses a question of whether other arrangements of land, ameliorating the negative effects of current growth in the suburban fringe, are sustainable and socially acceptable. In order to answer the research question, the study employs an integrative form-and-process methodology of land use modeling, where a generative multiobjective land allocation (MOLA) is loosely coupled with an exploratory spatial agent-based modeling (ABM) of residential development.; The MOLA model is equipped with a localized density-based design constraint that produces efficient spatial patterns of clustered development. Additionally, the hop-skip-jump component of MOLA can generate locally different alternatives. The evidence of the usefulness of MOLA is strengthened by the novelty of selected allocation solutions that point to new urban growth areas, which are not recognized in local comprehensive plans.; The dynamic ABM has the advantage of using risk-explicit decision making, in which agents are governed by nonlinear attitude utility functions (AUFs) that epitomize developers' perception of risk related with the property investment.; The results of the simulations point to nonlinearity of the attitude-pattern relationship. The impact of AUFs on the settlement compactness is inconclusive. Given two different experimental settings, the risk-bearing and the risk-avoiding attitudes have an opposite effect on pattern generation. Based on the artificial landscape, the risk-bearing AUF produces a more scattered development than the risk-avoiding attitude. In the real-world case study, however, the risk-bearing AUF has a more significant influence on reducing sprawl patterning.; The final step of the research examines the relationship between the results of both models. Based on a spatial metrics analysis the reported experiments reveal a significant role of the risk-bearing attitude in generating the desirable spatial configurations of MOLA blueprints.; Together, the reported studies demonstrate the potential of applying generative-exploratory modeling in many areas of geographic research, where spatial form and process play an equal role.
机译：郊区和远郊地区对许多城市居民具有不可否认的吸引力。同时，它们的特点是无效的零散的已开发和未开发区域的住宅拼凑而成。这项研究解决了一个问题，即其他土地安排是否能够减轻可持续发展并且在社会上可以接受，从而减轻目前郊区边缘地区经济增长的负面影响。为了回答研究问题，该研究采用了土地利用建模的综合形式和过程方法，其中生成性多目标土地分配（MOLA）与住宅开发的基于探索性空间代理的建模（ABM）松散地结合在一起。 。; MOLA模型配备了基于局部密度的设计约束，该约束产生了集群开发的有效空间模式。此外，MOLA的跳跳跳转组件可以生成局部不同的替代方案。选定的分配解决方案的新颖性进一步增强了MOLA有用性的证据，这些解决方案指向了新的城市增长区，但当地综合计划并未认识到这一点。动态ABM具有使用风险明确决策的优势，其中代理受非​​线性态度效用函数（AUF）支配，这些函数概括了开发商对与房地产投资相关的风险的感知。仿真结果表明姿态模式关系是非线性的。 AUFs对结算紧凑性的影响尚无定论。给定两个不同的实验设置，承担风险和避免风险的态度对模式生成有相反的影响。基于人工景观，承担风险的AUF所产生的发展比避免风险的态度更为分散。然而，在现实世界的案例研究中，承担风险的AUF对减少蔓延模式具有更大的影响。研究的最后一步检查了两个模型的结果之间的关系。基于空间度量分析，所报告的实验揭示了风险承担态度在生成MOLA蓝图的理想空间配置中的重要作用。总之，已报道的研究表明，在空间形式和过程起着同等作用的地理研究的许多领域中，应用生成探索性建模的潜力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Santa Barbara and San Diego State University.$bGeography, Joint Program SDSU.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Santa Barbara and San Diego State University.$bGeography, Joint Program SDSU.;
  • 学科 Geography.; Urban and Regional Planning.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 239 p.
  • 总页数 239
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 自然地理学;区域规划、城乡规划;
  • 关键词

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