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Assessment of impacts to hydroclimatology and river operations due to climate change over the Colorado River Basin.

机译：评估由于科罗拉多河流域的气候变化而对水文气候学和河流运营产生的影响。

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摘要

This dissertation investigated the impacts of climate change to the hydroclimatology and river and reservoir management operations within the Colorado River Basin. Preliminary research indicated observed warming trends throughout the Colorado River Basin and corresponding seasonal trends to the magnitude and timing of runoff in the Colorado River Basin. Subsequent research investigated the changing character of precipitation and corresponding impacts to streamflow over the Colorado River Basin. Analysis of snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) stations over the American West and Colorado River Basin indicated decreasing trends in annual snowpack, often at least at the 95% confidence interval. A shorter snowpack season was observed within the gage record at most SNOTEL locations throughout the western United States; the length of the snowpack season decreased approximately 1 day per year throughout much of the Colorado River Basin. Decreasing snowpack trends correspond with decreased runoff over the Colorado River Basin.;Research then focused on the derivation of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions. Using temporally disaggregated, bias corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation to force the National Weather Service River Forecasting System developed over the Colorado River Basin by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projections of unregulated streamflow under climate change conditions were derived over three Colorado River headwater basins. Projections of unregulated streamflow over the Gunnison and San Juan River Basin decreased approximately 15% to 20% over the 90 year projection period. Over the Green River Basin, an increase of approximately 3% was projected over the same 90 year period. Information from these streamflow projections were then used to force a river management planning model utilized by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) over the San Juan River Basin.;This research contributed to the understanding of hydroclimatology within the Colorado River Basin and impacts to river hydrology and management under changing climate conditions. This was done primarily in three sections. First, trends in snowpack characteristics were compared to annual and seasonal trends in streamflow to improve understanding of how hydroclimatic indices impact streamflow within the Colorado River Basin. Secondly, temporally disaggregated bias-corrected spatially downscaled projections of climate were used to derive streamflow projections over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River Basin. Changes to evapotranspiration with temperature were taken into consideration, and projections were subjected to analysis for evidence of nonstationary behavior. Finally, this dissertation represents Reclamation's first effort in the Colorado River Basin to incorporate climate change information into a planning model.;This research improves the understanding of the relationship between climatic variables and hydrology within the Colorado River Basin, and successfully derives projections of streamflow using projections of temperature and precipitation over Colorado River headwater basins. These streamflow projections may be used by water resource managers to evaluate potential ranges of resource management as impacts from climate change are realized. Information from these streamflow projections are incorporated into a Reclamation planning model. This research provides a proof of concept that may be followed to incorporate climate change information into environmental water resource planning and operations. With changing climate conditions, Reclamation must maintain proactive conservation efforts and efficient water management practices to meet water delivery requirements and flow recommendations.
机译：本文研究了气候变化对科罗拉多河流域内水文气候学以及河流和水库管理业务的影响。初步研究表明，在整个科罗拉多河流域观测到的变暖趋势以及在科罗拉多河流域径流的大小和时间上相应的季节趋势。随后的研究调查了降水的变化特征以及对科罗拉多河流域河流流量的相应影响。对美国西部和科罗拉多河流域的积雪遥测（SNOTEL）站进行的分析表明，年度积雪趋势呈下降趋势，通常至少在95％的置信区间内。在美国西部大多数SNOTEL地点的量具记录中，积雪季节较短。在科罗拉多河流域的大部分地区，积雪季节的长度每年大约减少1天。积雪量的减少趋势与科罗拉多河流域的径流减少相对应。研究随后集中在气候条件变化下的流量预测推导中。利用温度和降水的时间分解，偏差校正和空间缩减的气候预测，迫使科罗拉多盆地河流预报中心在科罗拉多河流域开发的国家气象服务河流预报系统，得出了气候变化条件下不受管制的水流的三个预测。科罗拉多河上游流域。在90年的预测期内，对甘尼森和圣胡安河流域的水流不受控制的预测下降了大约15％至20％。预计在相同的90年期间内，绿河流域的增幅约为3％。来自这些流量预测的信息随后被用于在美国圣胡安河流域实施由美国开垦局（Reclamation）运用的河流管理规划模型。该研究有助于了解科罗拉多河流域内的水文气候学及其对气候的影响。气候变化条件下的河流水文和管理。这主要分为三个部分。首先，将积雪特征的趋势与流量的年度和季节性趋势进行了比较，以更好地了解水文气候指数如何影响科罗拉多河流域内的流量。其次，使用按时间分类的偏差校正的空间缩小的气候预估来推导格林河，甘尼森河和圣胡安河流域的水流投影。考虑到蒸散量随温度的变化，并对投影进行了分析以得到非平稳行为的证据。最后，本论文代表了垦殖在科罗拉多河流域将气候变化信息纳入规划模型的首次工作。这项研究增进了对科罗拉多河流域内气候变量与水文学之间关系的理解，并成功地利用科罗拉多河上游水源区温度和降水的预测。当实现了气候变化的影响时，水资源管理者可以使用这些流量预测来评估资源管理的潜在范围。来自这些流量预测的信息被合并到填海计划模型中。这项研究提供了概念证明，可以遵循该概念将气候变化信息纳入环境水资源规划和运营中。随着气候条件的变化，填海造林必须保持积极的保护工作和有效的水管理实践，以满足供水要求和流量建议。

著录项

  • 作者

    Miller, William Paul.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Nevada, Las Vegas.;

  • 授予单位 University of Nevada, Las Vegas.;
  • 学科 Hydrology.;Climate Change.;Engineering Civil.;Engineering Environmental.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 233 p.
  • 总页数 233
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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