2000年和2002年，普京分别提出动荡弧和稳定弧概念。2015年非洲—欧亚动荡弧形带已经从太平洋扩展到大西洋，从东帝汶延伸到突尼斯，既包括欧亚大陆核心区域，还有周边岛屿。“阿拉伯之春”使动荡弧形带迅速波及北非和西亚国家。欧亚大陆“包围圈”的形成与领土争端和对抗，也与资源开采以及过境运输和贸易通道有关。除了中俄边境稳定之外，西部和西南输往中国的油气管道处于潜在动荡区。中俄与中亚国家应联手治理和打造欧亚“稳定弧”，从源头消除和控制诸多不稳定因素，创造欧亚经济联盟与中国“一带一路”倡议顺利对接的和平环境。中俄可以尝试在上海合作组织和集体安全条约组织基础上建成阶梯式屏障，阻止来自陷入动荡漩涡之中的中东动荡的输出和扩散。%In 2000 and 2002, Putin respectively proposed the concepts of turmoil arc and stable arc. In 2015, the Africa-Eurasia turmoil arc has extended from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean, from the East Timor to Tunisia, including not only the core area of Eurasia but also the surrounding islands. “The Spring of Arab” made the turmoil arc spread to the North African and Western Asian countries rapidly. The formation of the “ring of encirclement” in Eurasia and the territorial dispute and confrontation are also related to the resource exploit and transit transportation and trade channels. Except of the stability in China-Russia border, the oil and gas pipelines transported to China from the west and southwest Russia are in the potential turmoil area. China, Russia and the central Asian countries should control and make the Eurasian “stable arc” in joint hands, to eliminate and control the unstable factors from the source, and create the peaceful environment for the smooth butt joint between Eurasian Economic Union and China’s “Road and Belt” initiative. China and Russia can attempt to establish the cascade barrier based on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Collective Security Treaty Organization, so as to prevent the export and spread of the Middle East turmoil caught in the turmoil vortex.
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