Wire failures are introduced into quantitative safety analysis. The present status of the safety analysis, the present problems and the necessity to reckon with wire failures are briefly described. The wire failure is combined with safety analysis process. An analytical method of quantitative safety analysis reckoning with wire failures is proposed and described systematically. The mechanism affecting wire failure is analyzed. The factors that affect the failure rate of wire are profoundly researched. The conception, the effect factor of failure rate, is proposed. The main factors and its classification affecting failure rate of wire is developed. A calculating method and model for failure rate of wire, which applies civil airplane, are developed considering the single and multiple conditions. An example of the upper method is presented. The safety quantitative analysis becomes more accurate, effective and perfect. The method reduces significantly the unsafe events caused by wire failures, and pro vides support for safety and certification activities of civil aircraft.%将导线故障引入安全性定量分析方法中，介绍了安全性分析的现状、存在的问题以及计入导线故障的必要性。通过将导线故障和安全性分析相结合，提出一种计人导线故障的安全性定量分析方法。对影响导线故障的机理进行探究与分析，提出“导线故障率影响因子”概念，阐述了影响导线故障率的主要因素及其类型，建立了一种民用飞机实际导线故障率计算方法与模型，以及在单一状态和多种状态下导线故障率计算方法，并对方法进行案例分析，使安全性定量分析更准确、有效和完善，大大减少了导线故障所引起的不安全事件，为民用飞机安全性和合格审定工作提供了有力的支持。
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