Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

LI Ji-Feng; MA Zhong-Yu; ZHANG Ya-Xiong; WEN Zhi-Chao

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Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

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摘要

A quantitative model was applied to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030) and long-term economic and social development target China Dream.Results showed that 1) toward the 2050 China Dream target,total final energy consumption is expected to peak at 3.9 Gtce in 2030 and remain stable until 2050,whereas total primary energy consumption is expected to reach an upper platform by 2040 and around 5.8 Gtce by 2050;2) the proportion of non-fossil fuels is expected to reach approximately 50％ and that of natural gas to reach more than 16％ by 2050;3) CO2 emissions from energy use are expected to peak at 9.6 Gt by no later than 2030 and then gradually decline to 6.7 Gt by 2050.

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《气候变化研究进展(英文版)》 |2018年第1期|16-26|共11页
作者
LI Ji-Feng; MA Zhong-Yu; ZHANG Ya-Xiong; WEN Zhi-Chao;
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作者单位

Policy Simulation Laboratory, State Information Center, Beijing 100045, China;

Policy Simulation Laboratory, State Information Center, Beijing 100045, China;

Policy Simulation Laboratory, State Information Center, Beijing 100045, China;

School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;

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Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

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