Currently,flight delay is one of the air transport industry problems to be solved. It is significant that establish an effective predictive model to achieve more accurate real-time delay forecast for control-lers to solve air traffic congestion,reduce flight delays. Based on the flight schedule,a model about only one route in area controlled airspace was established,and later this model was generalized to the situation of multi-route in one region by summing. Finally an example shows that the model can predict the real-time flight delays in the Area controlled airspace and the model is feasible and effective.%目前航班延误是航空运输业亟待解决的问题之一,建立有效的预测模型实现较准确的实时延误预测,对管制员解决空中交通拥挤、减少航班延误意义重大.基于航班计划,建立区域管制空域内单航路的平均延误时间实时预测模型,通过求和可得到空域内多航路的延误预测模型.算例分析表明,模型能够实时预测区域管制空域平均延误时间,是可行有效的.
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