In order to avoid avalanche propagation in engineering change that is high-risk and high-cost, two methods for the detection of avalanche propagation are proposed. Firstly, the reasons for the avalanche propagation and its main features are analyzed: constraint conflict and/or a great many affected elements. Then, the methods for the detection of those two features based on directed graph and complex networks respectively are proposed. Finally, the experiment of managing a type of transmission is employed to validate our method and it shows the correctness of the proposed method.%为了避免高风险、高花费的工程变更雪崩传播,本文提出了两种预测雪崩传播的方法.首先,分析了雪崩传播的原因及其主要特性:约束冲突和被影响零件数目超过一定范围；然后,提出了分别利用有向图方法面向约束冲突和利用复杂网络相关知识对这两个特性进行检测的雪崩传播预测方法；第三,利用一个单级变速器实例说明了本文所提方法的实现过程,验证了该方法合理性；最后,提出了本文方法的缺陷以及改进方向.
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