In the early equipment development, because of unclear needs, lots of unknown factors and uncertainty in design, equipment design exists uncertainty problem. In view of uncertainty, taking equipment effectiveness index as a new variable and a impact factor, using mathematical theories such as Monte Carlo Simulation and interval number, an evaluation model of development and production cost for aviation equipment was established under the condition of uncertainty design.%在航空装备研制的早期阶段，由于需求不明确、未知因素多以及设计过程中的不确定性，装备设计存在不确定性。针对装备设计不确定性，将装备效能作为一个新的变量和费用的影响因数，利用蒙特卡洛仿真和区间数等理论，建立了设计不确定条件下装备研制与生产费用估算模型。
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