2014/15年度国内小麦再获丰收，产量实现十一连增，供需关系平衡略有余。在国家最低收购价政策支持下，新麦上市以来价格稳中走高，主产区全社会收购量大幅增加。从未来几个月市场走势看，国内供需基本面依然比较宽松，面粉需求“旺季不旺"格局持续，小麦饲用需求在玉米丰产的压力下也较前期减少，2014年小麦秋冬种面积基本稳定，市场缺乏提振因素。进口方面，由于2014/15年度国内小麦产量、质量双提升，对进口优质麦的需求减弱，但全球小麦连续两年增产，供应充足压力下国际市场小麦价格将保持低位震荡，国际小麦到岸价低于国内，价格优势明显，进口压力依然存在，这也将对国内市场形成压力。%China's wheat production increased by consecutive 11 years in 2014/15, and supply could meet demand. Supported by the national minimum purchase price policy, new wheat price was going up smoothly since coming into matket, and the whole society volume of wheat purchase increased greatly in main producing areas. As to the market trend during the next months, the relationship between supply and demand is still going to be relaxed in China, flour consumption will remain weak although in peak season, feed consumption will decrease because of maize harvest, planting area will be mainly steady in the winter of 2014, and boosting factors are lacked in the wheat market. The demand for imported high quality wheat will decrease because of the raise of domestic wheat production and quality in 2014/15, however, international wheat price will seesaw in a low level under the pressure of ample supply, with the increase of global wheat production for two consecutive years, which has obvious superiority for the lower price reached the ports than domestic price, there are still some pressures on import, and will create pressures on domestic wheat market to some extent.
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