在灰色理论的基础上与多项式相结合建立新的长期预测模型,将新模型与原有的指数模型应用到乌鲁木齐地区特有卵石地质条件下地铁车站深基坑沉降预测中,并对两种模型的预测结果进行比较,预测结果显示新模型的预测精度优于指数模型,可更好地拟合沉降曲线的变化规律.该新建模型可为乌鲁木齐地区同类基坑的沉降预测工作提供借鉴,对减少资源浪费具有一定意义.%A new long term prediction model is established based on Grey Theory and polynomial.The new model and the original index model are applied to the prediction of deep foundation pit of metro station in Urumqi region-specific geological conditions pebble,and the prediction results of the two models are compared,the prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the new model is better than the index model,and the new model fit better in changes of the settlement curve.The new model can provide reference for the settlement prediction of similar foundation pit in Urumqi area,and have a certain significance about guiding the construction of follow-up projects to reduce the waste of resources.
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