Geographical mapping and Bayesian spatial modeling of malaria incidence in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran

Farid Zayeri; Masoud Salehi; Hasan Pirhosseini

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Geographical mapping and Bayesian spatial modeling of malaria incidence in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran

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Objective:To present the geographical map of malaria and identify some of the important environmental factors of this disease in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran.Methods:We used the registered malaria data to compute the standard incidence rates (SIRs) of malaria in different areas of Sistan and Baluchistan province for a nine-year period (from 2001 to 2009). Statistical analyses consisted of two different parts: geographical mapping of malaria incidence rates, and modeling the environmental factors. The empirical Bayesian estimates of malaria SIRs were utilized for geographical mapping of malaria and a Poisson random effects model was used for assessing the effect of environmental factors on malaria SIRs.Results:In general, 64 926 new cases of malaria were registered in Sistan and Baluchistan Province from 2001 to 2009. Among them, 42 695 patients (65.8%) were male and 22 231 patients (34.2%) were female. Modeling the environmental factors showed that malaria incidence rates had positive relationship with humidity, elevation, average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature, while rainfall had negative effect on malaria SIRs in this province.Conclusions:The results of the present study reveals that malaria is still a serious health problem in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran. Geographical map and related environmental factors of malaria can help the health policy makers to intervene in high risk areas more efficiently and allocate the resources in a proper manner.

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《亚太热带医药杂志（英文版）》 |2011年第012期|985-992|共8页
作者
Farid Zayeri; Masoud Salehi; Hasan Pirhosseini;
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Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;

Department of Statistics and Mathematics, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;

Department of Network and Computer Services, Statistics Center of Iran, Tehran, Iran;

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Geographical mapping and Bayesian spatial modeling of malaria incidence in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran

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