Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050

Babak Shiravand; Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd; Abbas Ali Dehghani Tafti; Mohammad Reza Abai; Ali Almodarresi; Masoud Mirzaei

首页> 中文期刊> 《亚太热带医药杂志（英文版）》 >Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050

Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050

开具论文收录证明 >>

期刊封面封底目录下载 >>

文献代查 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相关主题

摘要

Objective: To investigate and predict the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the main vector and reservoir hosts of the disease inYazd province in the future. Methods: Distribution data for vector and reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yazd province were obtained from earlier studies conducted in the area. MaxEnt ecological niche modeling was used to predict environmental suitability. BCC-CSM1-1(m) model and two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for horizons 2030 and 2050 climate projections. Future projections were based on data of a regional climate change model. Results: With both scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the results of jackknife test indicated that the mean temperature of wettest quarter and temperature annual range had the greatest effect on the model for the vector and the reservoir hosts, respectively. Conclusions: The climate conditions are the major determinants of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence rate in Yazd Province. These climate conditions provide favorable habitats for ease transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in this endemic area. Habitats suitability for the vector and reservoir will be expanding in the coming years compared with the current conditions, such that, in horizon 2030 & 2050, the probability of the presence of the vector and reservoir within 38580 and 37949 km2, respectively, from Yazd province is above 60％. Moreover, an increase is predicted in the presence of the vector in the western parts and the reservoir in the northern and central parts of the province in the future. Understanding the role of environmental and bioclimatic factors in zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence can provide a guide for policy-makers in the creation and implementation of more effective policies for prevention and control.

著录项

来源
《亚太热带医药杂志（英文版）》 |2019年第5期|204-215|共12页
作者
Babak Shiravand; Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd; Abbas Ali Dehghani Tafti; Mohammad Reza Abai; Ali Almodarresi; Masoud Mirzaei;
展开▼
作者单位

Department of Health in Disasters and Emergencies;

School of Public Health;

Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences;

Yazd;

Iran;

Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control;

School of Public Health;

Tehran University of Medical Sciences;

Tehran;

Iran;

Department of Health in Disasters and Emergencies;

School of Public Health;

Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences;

Yazd;

Iran;

Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control;

School of Public Health;

Tehran University of Medical Sciences;

Tehran;

Iran;

Engineering College;

GIS & RS Department Yazd Branch;

Islamic Azad University;

Yazd;

Iran;

Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics;

School of Public Health;

Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences;

Yazd;

Iran;

展开▼
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词

Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050

摘要

著录项

相关主题

期刊订阅