There have happened several strong earthquakes in Pacific Rim regions recently. Earthquake is natural phenomenon of earth's crust release energy. With Indian plate moved to north continuously and squeezed to Asian plate, now people are still anxious that high risk of the same large earthquake in the region of West China is not decreased after two years. So how to evaluate reliability and vulnerability of the lifeline systems for future earthquake in the area and search reasonable design practice of seismic strengthening of these buildings are urgent mission. In view of this standpoint this article summarizes and respects inner and abroad seismic fragility research history and actuality, and forecasts future dynamic fragility in civil engineering.%今年以来环太平洋地区强震不断,地震是地壳板块释放能量的自然现象,随着印度洋板块不断的北移挤压欧亚板块,未来在我国中西部地区发生高强度地震的风险仍然较高,对此我们需要保持高度的警惕.因此如何评估这一地区未来可能的地震对该地区生命线工程造成的损伤风险,进而避免人民生命财产的损失,就是一个非常值得深入探讨并且非常紧迫的战略性课题.基于此本文总结和回顾了土木工程抗震易损性分析研究的历史和现状,并展望未来动力易损性的发展,这对于更好的发展我国的土木建筑工程意义深远.
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