To clarify the effects of accelerated development of Shanghai's urban rail transit since 2007 on GHG emission reduction, based on analysis of the annual changes of traffic modes and GHG emissions further comparison was made between the real scenario (accelerated development of rail transit) and the Business-As-Usual scenario (normal development of rail transit). The results showed that the rail transit absorbed 50% of the total increment of commuting volume since 2007, which (1) helped to relieve the stress of congestion and pollution related to car growth, (2) slowed down the growth rate of GHG emissions from Shanghai's commuting system even though the traffic volume was growing rapidly at the same time. In the real scenario, the total GHG emissions (CO2-c) from inside-city commuting from the beginning of 2007 to the end of October, 2010 was 789,000 tons lower than those in the BAU scenario. This not only made great contribution to Shanghai Expo to offset part of its GHG emissions before closing and to achieve its Low-Carbon Expo target, but also piloted in Shanghai's transformation toward a low-carbon city.%为研究2007年以来上海轨道交通建设提速带来的温室气体减排效益,对上海市内出行结构与碳排放量历年变化进行了分析,并进-步采用情景分析法,对实际情景(轨道交通加速发展)与基准情景(轨道交通常速发展)下市内出行碳排放进行了对比.结果表明,2007年以来轨道交通吸收了全市客运增长量的50％,不仅缓解了个体机动车迅速增长带来的拥堵和污染等问题,也使得整个上海市内客运交通在客运量迅速攀升的同时,碳排放总量增长速度却有了明显放缓.与基准情景相比,2007年1月初至2010年10月底世博会结束这段时期内,实际情景下上海轨道交通的快速发展使市内出行碳排放总量相对减排了78.9万tCO2当量.
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