基于向量自回归模型（VAR），选用1991—2015年的社会保障支出和国民生产总值数据，运用Stata软件通过序列相关系数检验、单位根检验、以及Granger因果关系检验等，分析得出社会保障支出与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，且经济增长与社会保障支出两者互为因果关系，相互促进。最后，提出了几点相应的政策建议。%This thesis is based on the vector auto regressive model (VAR) that chooses the social security expenditure and GDP data for the period between 1991 and 2015. We uses Stata software to do sequence correlation coefficient test, unit root test and Granger causality test to find there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between social security expenditure and economic growth. And there also exists a causal relationship between economic growth and social security expenditure, which can promote each other forward respectively. Finally, we put forward some corresponding policy advice in the following article.
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