我国煤炭勘查投入2006~2012年持续上涨,2013年开始快速下行,截至2015年底,勘查投入不足2012年峰值的1/3.本文分析了2006~2015年我国煤炭勘查投入变化背后的影响因素,以期为煤炭勘查形势研判奠定基础.以亚当·斯密《国富论》中关于超额利润的论述为基础,引入了"超额收益率"概念,用于衡量矿产勘查业对社会资本的吸引力.分析了煤炭价格、煤炭工业超额收益率、勘查资金结构以及矿业权政策与煤炭勘查投入之间的关系.结果表明:煤炭价格峰值领先矿产勘查投入峰值约4年时间;煤炭工业超额收益率直接影响煤炭勘查业投入预期;勘查资金结构和矿业权政策也是影响煤炭勘查投入的重要因素.%Coal exploration expenditures continued to rise during 2006~2012 year by year ,and began to reduce rapidly since 2013 ,exploration expenditure in 2015 is less than a third of that level in 2012 .This paper analyzes the factors of coal exploration expenditures in China in the past 10 years in order to forecast the prospect of coal exploration .On the basis of introduction about super profits in Adam Smith's "Wealth of the Nations" ,excess return is introduced in order to measure the attractiveness of mineral exploration industry to social capital .The relationship between coal prices ,excess return of coal industry ,structure of expenditures ,mining rights policy and coal exploration expenditures are analyzed .The analysis shows that the peak of coal prices appeared 4 years earlier than the peak of coal exploration expenditures in China ;the excess return of the coal industry directly affects the coal exploration expenditure ;the structure of coal exploration expenditures and the mining right access policy are also important factors for coal exploration expenditures .
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