在我国经济增速放缓和煤炭行业所呈现的新常态下,随着我国煤炭进口量的不断增长以及国内外市场价格逐步接轨,国际煤炭价格对我国经济的影响越来越大,但是,鲜有学者系统地研究煤炭价格、煤炭消费和经济增长三者之间的关系.鉴于此,本文基于2000~2013年的相关统计数据,从结构突变和动静态视角,运用协整理论和马尔科夫区制转换模型对亚太地区煤价、我国GDP和煤炭消费之间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:①三者之间存在着长期均衡关系,但是在2005年前后发生结构突变,将我国经济分为"资源软约束"和"资源硬约束"两个阶段;②在我国煤炭资源相对丰富的"资源软约束"阶段,主要表现出亚太地区煤价、我国GDP和煤炭消费相对独立的状态;③在"资源硬约束"阶段,三者之间的依赖性和约束性增强,煤炭能源与我国经济增长的矛盾凸显.%with the continuous growth of China's coal imports and consumption ,the coal price of foreign influence on China's economy has been more and more greater .Annual statistical data from 2000 to 2013 year applied ,this paper ,from the structure changes and dynamic and static perspective ,aimed to use the co-integration theory and the Markov Regime switching model for empirical research on the relationship among the coal price in Asia Pacific region ,China's GDP and coal consumption .The results showed that there existed a long-term equilibrium relationship between the above three sequences ,but in 2005 before and after the structure changed ,the economy of our country was divided into two stages—"soft resource constraint"and"hard resource constraints" .During the first stage ,in our country coal resources were relatively rich , mainly the coal price in Asia Pacific ,China's GDP and coal consumption was in relatively independent state . In the "hard resource constraints" stage ,it enhanced the dependence and restriction among the three , highlighting the contradictions of the coal energy and economic growth in China .At the same time ,based on the above conclusion it put forward some suggestions .
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