Medium-and long-term energy supply and energy security pressure scenarios in eastern coastal China were analyzed by comprehensively using of scenario analysis based on the IPAT equation of deformation mode in this article .Dependence on foreign energy is a direct measure of the pressure on energy security indicators .Three scenarios were designed according to the demographic and socio-economic trends over the next 40 years in eastern coastal areas ,and combined with the development of the status .Energy supply and demand ,as well as the dependence on foreign energy of eastern coastal areas in different contexts were obtained by calculation .The results show that :Growth rate of energy demand was fastest in the business as usual scenario mode ;The largest increase was total energy production in the green energy scenario mode;Dependence on foreign energy was smallest in the green energy scenario mode .Studies have shown that the population control ,moderate economic growth ,positive development and utilization of new energy and renewable energy ,diversification of energy varieties ,and improving the economic efficiency of energy was a strong guarantee of sustainable energy development in eastern coastal areas .%本文借助于情景分析法，基于IPA T方程的变形模式，以能源对外依存度为能源安全压力的直接度量指标，对未来中长期我国东部沿海地区可供选择的能源供需及能源安全压力情景进行探讨。根据未来40多年东部沿海地区人口及社会经济的发展趋势，结合发展现状，设计了三种情景，通过计算得到了不同情境下东部沿海地区的能源供应量和需求量以及能源对外依存度。计算结果表明：在常规情景模式下，能源需求量的增速最快；绿色能源情景模式下能源生产总量的增幅最大；能源的对外依存度在绿色能源情景模式下最小。研究表明，控制人口、经济适度发展，积极开发利用新能源与可再生能源，实现能源品种多元化，提高能源的经济效率，是实现东部沿海地区能源可持续发展的有力保证。
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