Thermal coal is the dominant part of coal in China .Thermal coal price not only accurately reflect the change of coal price ,but also has significant impact on economic growth .The paper analyses the dynamic relationship between economic growth ,domesticsupply ,tradedependency ,oil price and thermal coal price ,based on VAR model and Cointegration .The results show that there is an long-term and cointegration relationship between five factors .Economic growth ,domestic supply and oil price are strong Granger cause of thermal coal price ,while trade dependency's effect is not significant .The impact of oil prices is greater than economic growth and domestic supply ,and the impact of trade dependency is minimal in short run .the impact of economic growth is increasing ,oil prices and domestic supply reach peak quickly and then decline slowly ,trade dependency's effect grows slowly in the long term .So we should transform economic grow th mode ,eliminate backward production capacity ,changes the industrial structure ,to inhibit price volatility ,and increase the size of the thermal coal imports in order to slow the consumption of domestic resources and promote the healthy development of domestic thermal coal industry .% 动力煤是我国煤炭的主体，其价格波动不仅能准确反映煤炭价格变化，而且会冲击经济增长。本文运用 VAR 模型、协整等计量方法研究经济增长、内部供给、对外贸易依存及替代能源价格与动力煤价格间的动态关系。结果表明四因素与煤价间存在长期协整关系；经济增长、内部供给与国际油价是动力煤价格的强格兰杰原因。短期内，国际油价冲击大于经济增长及内部供给对煤价的影响，而对外贸易依存的冲击最小；长期看，经济增长对动力煤价格的冲击日益增加，国际油价与内部供给的冲击在迅速达到峰值后缓慢下降，对外贸易依存的冲击增长非常缓慢。因此抑制动力煤价格的剧烈波动一方面应该通过转变经济增长方式，淘汰落后产能，转变产业结构，另一方面应加大动力煤进口规模，减缓国内资源消耗速度，利用倒逼机制促进国内动力煤产业健康发展。
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