From the perspective of potential output ,this paper defines the concept of coal supply gap , and uses HP Filter to estimate Chinese potential coal supply and coal supply gap from 1980 -2010 .It verifies the correlation between macroeconomic fluctuations and potential coal supply with GARCH model and investigates whether the relationship of “U” exists ,thus provide an important tool for government and coal enterprises analysis of coal industry and its market risk management .From this paper ,the coal enterprises ,facing the relatively loose situation ,should grasp the market rule ,strengthen the confidence of coal development ,follow up the government policy ,and promote the integration so as to reduce the operational risks .%从潜在供给理论对煤炭供给缺口进行界定，对1980～2011年中国煤炭供给数据采用 H P滤波法估算出我国煤炭潜在供给及缺口；建立GARCH模型来检验宏观经济波动与估算出的煤炭潜在供给的相关性，考察两者之间是否存在“U”型关系，从而为政府及煤炭企业提供一个了解煤炭市场长期供需发展状况的重要工具。针对目前煤炭市场供需相对宽松的态势，本文提出煤炭企业应把握市场循环规律，坚定煤炭发展信心；跟进政府推出的电煤价格并轨政策，推动煤电一体化发展，从而降低经营管理和市场管理的风险。
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