近年来,随着天然气在我国能源结构中的比重上升,天然气的供需矛盾已经影响到我国经济的快速持续发展和能源安全供给.本文通过分析山东等华北地区的天然气市场结构、市场态势、用气特征以及供需形势,针对市场变化引发需求不确定性、季节波动性、供气安全等问题,从定量角度分析中石化华北地区天然气市场供气风险,提出中石化应对风险的调峰方式与策略,为中石化华北天然气市场产销运行提供了新思路.%In recent years, with the increase in the proportion of natural gas in China's energy structure, the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas has affected China's rapid economic sustainable development and energy security supply. By analyzing the structure of the natural gas market of North China, Shandong and other market situation, with the gas characterist-ics as well as supply and demand situation, triggered for changes in the market demand uncertainty, seasonal volatility, gas safety and other issues in North China, the authors analyze Sinopec gas of the risk of market supply from a quantitative point, the Sinopec deals with risks peaking with the strategy.
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