目的:从政府角度出发,分析广州政府免费给60岁以上老年人接种流感疫苗的经济性,为决策部门提供参考.方法:通过构建静态预算影响分析模型,对目标人群自费和假设免费接种流感疫苗需要政府投入的卫生费用进行估算,分析政府总支出的变化.结果:在自费接种的情况下,需要政府每年投入卫生费用约40785594元;在免费接种情况下,需要政府投入约54744715元,即每年政府需多投入13959121元,但可以减少流感患者约39845人.敏感度分析显示政府每年多投入的卫生费用最多不超过2000万元.结论:广州政府免费给60岁以上老年人接种流感疫苗具有经济性;如果政府财政可负担,则可以考虑给全市老年人免费接种流感疫苗,从而更大程度地保障老年人免受流感及其并发症的侵害.%OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the economic efficiency of the Guangzhou government's free vaccination of influenza vaccine for elderly people over 60 years old from perspective of government,and to provide reference for decision-making depart-ment. METHODS:The static budget impact analysis model was constructed to estimate the healthcare expenses of self-paid vaccina-tion and free vaccination,and analyze the change of total government expenditure. RESULTS:The healthcare costs by government was estimated to be 40785594 yuan when the influenza vaccination was self-paid;it would rise up to 54744715 yuan when the government provided the influenza vaccine freely,so the government needed to invest more than 13959121 yuan each year,but in-fluenza patients could be reduced by about 39845 people. The sensitivity analysis showed that the health cost additionally invested by government was not more than 20 million yuan every year. CONCLUSIONS:It is economical for the government of Guangzhou to provide free vaccination for elderly people over 60 years old. If the government is financially affordable,it may consider providing free influenza vaccine for the elderly in the city so as to protect the elderly from influenza and its complications to a greater extent.
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