农村劳动力转移对于促进地区经济增长和缩小城乡差距具有重要作用.通过构建区域竞争力指标体系并利用主成分分析法和层次分析法测度出重庆市1998-2010年区域竞争力指数后,基于VAR模型,通过广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,利用农村劳动力转移数据对重庆市农村劳动力转移与区域竞争力之间的长期均衡关系及动态性进行了实证分析.研究结果表明:重庆市劳动力转移与区域竞争力之间存在协整关系,两者之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系.重庆市劳动力转移与区域竞争力之间的脉冲响应函数不同,农村劳动力转移对区域竞争力冲击响应的滞后期长且总体影响为正,区域竞争力对农村劳动力转移总体产生显著的负向影响.农村劳动力转移对区域竞争力的预测方差贡献度较小,而区域竞争力对农村劳动力转移的预测方差起着重要作用.%Rural labor transfer plays an important role for the decrease of rural-labor variation and the promotion of regional economic growth.By establishing index system of regional competitiveness,Chongqing's regional competitiveness index number during 1998-2010 is measured by PCA and AHP.Based on the VAR model,the paper researches the long-term equilibrium and dynamic relationship between the transfer of Chongqing rural labor force and regional competitiveness through the statistics of Chongqing from 1998 to 2010.The paper analyzes it by general impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results show that:there is the co-integration and long-term equilibrium relationship between the rural labor transfer of Chongqing and regional competitiveness.The impulse response function between them is different,and the lag period of rural labor transfer's impulse response to regional competitiveness is long and positive,while the regional competitiveness has a negative impact on rural labor transfer totally.Additionally,variance decomposition analysis indicates that rural labor transfer contributes little to forecast variance decomposition of regional competitiveness,or vice versa.
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