碳关税是在全球气候变暖和人类环境压力与日俱增的背景下由欧盟等发达国家提出的,是发达国家以环境保护之名的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒.中国是一个农产品生产和出口大国,碳关税的实施必将影响中国的农产品出口.本文首先运用进化博弈理论分析了发展中国家和发达国家对征收碳关税问题上可能采取的最终策略；然后采用古诺模型探讨了在发达国家征收碳关税的背景下,中国应采取哪些策略可以减少对农产品出口的影响；最后,基于情景分析和蒙特卡洛模拟的结果,提出了全球碳关税背景下中国应该采取的最优策略.研究结果显示:①发达国家很可能会强硬征收碳关税,而发展中国家很有可能会妥协.②中国可采取多种措施减轻发达国家征收碳关税对农产品出口的影响.这些措施包括向发达国家征收报复性碳关税、对内征收碳税以及开发低碳农业技术等.③在发达国家征收碳关税的情景下,中国的最优策略是对内征收碳税.基于本文的研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议.%Carbon tariff is proposed by the European Union and other developed countries in the context of global warming and increasing human environmental pressure,which is a new green trade barrier in the name of environmental protection.China is a big country of agricultural production and export.Therefore,the implementation of carbon tariffs is bound to affect China' s agricultural exports.In this paper,we firstly utilize the evolutionary game theory to analyze the final strategy that may be taken by the developing countries and developed countries for carbon tariffs.Then,by using the Cournot model,we discuss what strategies China should adopt on the background of imposing carbon tariffs by developed countries.Finally,we put forward the optimal strategy that China should take in the context of global carbon tariffs based on the results of the scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.The research results indicate that:① developed countries are likely to impose carbon tariffs toughly,while developing countries are likely to compromise; ② China can take many measures to mitigate the impact of the developed countries' imposing carbon tariffs on agricultural exports,including imposing retaliatory carbon tariffs to the developed countries,levying domestic carbon taxes and developing low carbon agricultural technology; and ③in the scenario of the developed countries' imposing carbon tariffs,China' s optimal strategy is to levy domestic carbon taxes.We also propose corresponding policy recommendations based on the conclusions of this research.
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