The Chinese foreign trade commodity structure from dimensions of containerized cargo identification and production in-put factors were first categorized .Then the effects of containerized cargo's foreign trade commodity structure on the import and export container generation by using ridge regression model were analyzed .Results showed that labor-intensive products ,capital and technology intensive products account for more than 95％ of Chinese container transportation .For the effects on container generation ,capital and technology intensive products have a larger effect than on labor-intensive products ,which has a larger effect than on resource-intensive products for both import and export cargos .However ,the effects on unit output value for con-tainer generation index was just the opposite .China's container throughput growth will enter the stage of low growth .This trend should be paid full attention when considering the layout of China's container ports and transportation capacity ,which will avoid overcapacity and unfair competition between ports .%从适箱商品识别和按生产投入要素分类两个维度对外贸商品结构进行划分,并运用岭回归模型,研究适箱商品外贸结构对出口集装箱和进口集装箱生成的影响.结果表明:中国集装箱运输的商品中,劳动力密集型、资本和技术密集型商品占比在95％ 以上;无论出口还是进口,在对集装箱生成的影响程度上,资本和技术密集型商品>劳动力密集型商品>资源密集型商品,在单位产值集装箱生成系数上结果正好相反.中国集装箱吞吐量增长将进入中低速增长的阶段,我国集装箱港口和运力布局要充分关注这一趋势,避免造成产能过剩和港口间不合理竞争.
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