As an alternative of oil-based route, indirect coal-to-liquids （ICL） plus CO2 capture （CC） provides the possibility of alleviating domestic shortage of oil resources but in a low-carbon way. However, the economy of the route is not only affected by the domestic coal market, but by the international oil market as well. By introducing the concept of＂oil breakeven price＂, we assessed the cost of ICL plus CC quantitatively. The results show that, although the ICL plus CC route seems to be economically feasible due to the on-going high oil price in the short term, considerable market risks still exist in related projects given the recent oil price fluctuation. Therefore, future investment should be made after a thorough investigation of oil markets and climate policies.%作为一种石油替代型技术,煤间接液化加碳捕集提供了一种以低碳模式缓解国内石油资源缺乏的可能。但其经济性不仅受国内煤炭市场也同时受到国际原油市场的影响。通过引入石油平衡价格的概念,定量化考察了石油价格不确定下的煤间接液化加碳捕集技术的成本,计算结果显示,该技术尽管受短期内油价持续走高的影响表现出一定的成本优势,但在近年国际原油价格波动水平下,相关项目的市场风险仍不可忽视。未来的相关投资还需在深入研究石油市场以及气候变化政策的基础之上做出理性决策。
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