环境库兹涅茨曲线理论及"先污染后治理"现象在学术界存在广泛争论,尚未形成普遍共识.本文对环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)进行了理论分析和实证研究,指出EKC反映的是环境质量与经济发展之间的长期的动态演化关系,是一个趋势性的规律,而非精确规律,而且该曲线存在一定的临界时间尺度、临界经济规模和临界经济水平现象.本文结合全球100多个国家和地区以及中国各省的经济、环境数据进行实证研究.结果表明,在各国PM10年均浓度和中国各省工业固废排放量这两项指标上,存在着明显的临界时间尺度,临界经济规模及临界经济水平现象;而其他指标仍处恶化状态,其临界特征暂不能得到具体数值,有待日后的检验和归纳.%The theory of environment Kuznets curve and the phenomenon of "treatment after pollution" had been widely debated,a general consensus has not yet been reached.This paper carried out a theoretic analysis and an empirical research on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC),and pointed out that what the curve reflected was a long-term dynamic relationship between environmental quality and economic development.Furthermore,EKC is a trend of law,rather than an accurate law;in addition,certain critical time scale ,critical economic scale and critical economic level were found with respect to EKC.We analyzed the economic environment data of more than 100 countries and regions,as well as the provinces in China.Results show that in terms of the two indicators namely average annual PM10 concentration among various countries and Chinese provincial Industrial solid waste emissions,evident critical time scale,critical economic scale as well as critical economic level exist;however,other indicators remain deteriorating,and there is no numerical result for their critical characteristics,which need to be examined and summarized later.
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