为了解我国20~69岁人群握力增龄性变化趋势.方法:选取2000年、2005年、2010年和2014年我国国民体质监测数据库中20~69岁完成握力测试人群,通过握力极差率、年度同比增长率、环比增长率等指标完成对20~69岁人群横向增龄性变化趋势的研究;同时采用聚合交叉方法结合结构年代学原理对4次国民体质监测数据库进行重新构建,并将重构后数据进行趋势预测,建立20~69岁人群握力纵向增龄性变化趋势线.最终在握力横向增龄性变化趋势和纵向增龄性变化趋势的基础上,构建出我国20~69岁人群握力增龄性变化趋势.结果表明:1)从历次国民体质监测数据对比来看,握力值随着监测次数的递增持续下降,且下降幅度逐渐减小;2)从不同年龄组握力增龄性变化情况来看,握力存在平台期和下降期2个阶段,且握力进入下降期后下降幅度呈现出增龄性增大趋势,男性在35岁年龄组,女性在40岁年龄组进入下降期,且男、女性均在50岁年龄组进入明显下降期;3)对握力极差率分析发现,我国男性上肢肌肉力量从成年到老年下降了30.3%~36.8%,女性下降了23.3%~28.5%;4)对握力增龄性变化的横向研究结果和纵向研究结果对比发现,存在横向研究低估增龄性损失的现象.%To explore the trend of the age-related grip strength change of Chinese people aged 20 to 69 year old. Methods: 20 to 69 year old people who completed grip strength test from 2010 to 2014 were selected as the research objects from the Chinese National Physique Monitoring Database. Based on such indexes as rate of extremely poor grip strength, year-on-year growth rate and growth rate, a study was carried out on the horizontal age-related change trend of 20 to 69 year old people; meanwhile, based on the principle of structure chronology, the aggregation and crossing method was used to reconstruct the fourth national physique monitoring database, conduct trend prediction on the reconstructed data and build the age-related change trend of the grip strength of Chinese people aged 20 to 69. Results and Conclusions: 1) The comparisons of the previous national physique monitoring data showed that the grip strength declined constantly with the increase of monitoring times and the decline became smaller and smaller. 2) According to the age-related changes of different age groups, grip strength had two phases: plateau and decrement, and after entering the decrement phase, the decline showed a tendency of age-related increase; males in the group aged 35 years and females in the group aged 40 years entered the decrement phase, and both males and females in the group aged 50 years entered a phase of dramatic decrement. 3) The analysis of rate of extremely poor grip strength found that the muscular strength of upper extremities of Chinese males was decreased by 30.3% to 36.8% from adulthood to old age, while that of Chinese females by 23.3% to 28.5%. 4) Comparisons of the horizontal research results and longitudinal research results of age-related grip strength changes found that the horizontal research underestimated age-related loss.
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