Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

Qingwang Guo; Junxue Jia; Yongjie Zhang; Zhiyun Zhao

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Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

机译：中国财政货币政策规则与通货膨胀动态的混合％中国财政货币政策规则与通货膨胀动态的混合

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The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction func.tions and Markov-switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992-2007. Our results show that fiseal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took plaee around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countereyclical in the pre-1998 period, then switched to be passive and more eountercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre-1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiseal policy.

机译：本文基于1992-2007年的季度数据，研究了财政和货币政策规则的混合在使用财政和货币政策反应功能以及马尔可夫切换向量自回归方法确定通货膨胀动态中的作用。我们的结果表明，可以使用一些简单的规则充分描述中国的财政政策和货币政策，并且在1998年左右开始出现重大的政权转移。在1998年前的时期，财政政策趋向于主动和反主流，然后转变为被动和被动。在1998年之前，货币政策的特征是被动和顺周期性，后来又转向主动和反周期性。财政政策和货币政策规则的混合比单独使用货币政策规则可以更好地解释通胀动态。因此，价格稳定不仅需要适当的货币政策，还需要适当的财政政策。

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来源
《中国与世界经济：英文版》 |2011年第5期|47-66|共20页
作者
Qingwang Guo; Junxue Jia; Yongjie Zhang; Zhiyun Zhao;
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作者单位

China Financial Policy Research Center, School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China;

China Financial Policy Research Center, School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China;

School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China;

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing, China;

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正文语种 chi
中图分类 E31;E61;
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Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

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