Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances:a NFI-based scenario analysis

Christian Temperli; Clemens Blattert; Golo Stadelmann; Urs-Beat Brändli; Esther Thürig

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Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances:a NFI-based scenario analysis

机译：生态系统服务提供与干扰易感性之间的权衡：基于NFI的情景分析

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Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

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《中国林学（英文版）》 |2020年第3期|349-365|共17页
作者
Christian Temperli; Clemens Blattert; Golo Stadelmann; Urs-Beat Brändli; Esther Thürig;
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Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland;

University of Jyväskylä FI-40014 Jyväskylä Finland;

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland;

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Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances:a NFI-based scenario analysis

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