[方法]利用德州市11个气象观测站1971~2014年逐日平均气温资料,采用五日滑动平均、经验频率法、趋势分析法,[目的]对该市0℃界限温度初(终)日、间隔日数、积温变化特征、稳定通过界限温度80%的保证率及其对粮食作物的影响进行分析.[结果]研究表明:德州地区≥0℃的初日呈显著提前趋势,增长速率为4.12d/10年,主要集中在2月中下旬;终日有延迟趋势,推后速率为0.27d/10年,主要集中在12月上旬;间隔日数显现出略增加趋势,增加速率为4.39d/10年,平均为288d;≥0℃活动积温呈现明显增加趋势,增温速率为117.2℃/10年,平均为4982.5℃.全市稳定通过0℃界限温度80%保证率的初日范围为3月1~6日、终日范围为12月9~17日、积温范围在4939.7~5295.4℃之间.[结论]气候变化使当地热量资源增加,夏玉米等作物生长期延长,冬小麦播期有所推迟,返青期、成熟期提前全生育期天数缩短,对粮食作物造成的影响还需进一步进行综合分析.%According to the daily meteorological data from 11 stations in Dezhou city from 1971 to 2014, using the methods of 5-day sliding mean, experience frequency, and the linear trend estimation, this paper analyzed the initial and final dates, duration, accumulated temperature, 80% guarantee rate of the daily temperature above 0℃ stably, and the impacts on Grain crop.The results showed that the initial date was in advance 4.12 days per 10 years, which mainly concentrated in the mid to late February.The final date delayed 0.27 days per decade, which mainly concentrated in early December.The duration increased 4.39 days per decade, the average number of days was 288.The accumulated temperature above 0℃ increased 117.2℃ per decade.The range of initial date of stability with 80% guarantee rate of the daily temperature above 0℃ was from March 1st to 6, the range of final date was from December 9 to 17, the range of accumulated temperature was between 4939.7 ℃ and 5295.4℃.The climate change increased the local heat resource, prolonged the summer corn growth period, delayed winter wheat appropriate seeding time, promoted the mature period in advance, and shortened the number of days in the whole stage.So it put forward that it needed to comprehensively analyze the effects on the crop grain.
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