[目的]2014年起国家在新疆实施棉花目标价格试点工作,标志着新疆棉花价格正式由政府指导价时代进入市场主导时代.目标价格改革试点是完善农产品价格形成机制的一个重要举措,属于国家调控政策范畴,研究国家棉花目标价格政策对新疆棉区棉花种植规模的调控效应,对促进新疆棉花产业发展、保障国家棉花安全具有重要的意义.[方法]该研究选用新疆棉花种植面积和价格的多年时序数据,采用格兰杰因果关系检验模型和棉花价格敏感度系数,从定性与定量分析新疆棉花价格与种植规模之间关系入手,深入探讨目标价格对全疆棉区整体及各个地州棉花种植规模的调控效应.[结果]棉花价格对棉花种植规模具有滞后性影响,且对不同区域棉花种植规模的影响存在显著差异;适度的目标价格水平在一定程度上实现了调减新疆棉花种植规模、促进棉花生产向优势产区集聚、优化棉花类型结构的目标.基于此,提出新疆棉花生产发展的政策建议.[结论]目标价格政策对新疆地方棉区棉花规模调控效应显著.%Since 2014, the pilot work of the price of cotton was carried out in Xinjiang, which marked the time when the cotton price changed from government guidance to market dominance.Target price reform is one of the important measures to improve the price formation mechanism of agricultural products, which belongs to the category of national regulation policy.To study the effect of national cotton target price policy on cotton planting scale has the vital significance to promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.This paper selected time-series data of cotton planting area and the price using granger causality test model and cotton price sensitivity coefficient, and qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the relationship between Xinjiang cotton prices and planting scale, then discussed the control effect of the target price on the cotton planting scale in the whole Xinjiang cotton region.The results showed that: cotton price had hysteresis effects on cotton planting scale in different region.Suitable target price can reduce the cotton planting scale, promote the agglomeration of cotton production, and optimize the cotton type structure.Finally, it put forward the policy suggestions to strengthen the construction of Xinjiang cotton base under the downward trend of target price.
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