[目的]通过研究新疆农业碳排放峰值预测和影响因素能真正为新疆低碳农业发展和减排路径选择作出科学的评判和提供借鉴.[方法]文章基于种植业活动、 牲畜养殖、 农田土壤、 秸秆焚烧4个方面23类碳源,测算了新疆1995~2014年农业碳排放量,并从时间、 结构和空间维度分析其变化特征;在此基础上构建STIRPAT模型,并运用情景分析法对未来新疆农业碳排放峰值进行相关预测;同时,利用LMDI方法对新疆农业碳排放影响因素进行分解.[结果]新疆农业碳排量呈现"波动上升—持续上升"两阶段变化特征,碳排放量由1995年的1942.7万t增加到2014年3921.3万t,增幅1978.6万t,年均增长3.77%;各地(州,市)区域差异明显,喀什地区属碳排放量、 碳排放强度"双高"型地区,阿勒泰等4地区属低碳排放量、 高碳排放强度地区,乌鲁木齐等5地区属碳排放量、 碳排放强度"双低"型地区,昌吉回族州等4地区属高碳排放量、 低碳排放强度地区;若农业碳排放影响因素保持原有增长率不变情况下,新疆农业碳排放不会在2050年内达到峰值,在基准情景和低碳情景下,新疆农业碳排放峰值出现时间分别为2040年和2029年,碳排量分别为7457.68万t和4755.23万t;与1995年相比,效率因素、 结构因素分别累计实现0.33亿t(97.47%)、0.0086亿t(2.53%)的农业碳减排,经济因素是农业碳排放最主要的驱动因素,累计实现了0.41亿t的碳增加,人口因素为农业碳排放另一重要因素,累计实现了0.13亿t的碳增加.[结论]秸秆焚烧是导致新疆农业碳排放量增加的最主要碳源;碳排放量、 碳排放强度和碳排放结构空间差异明显;不同情景下新疆农业碳排放峰值出现时间差异较大;经济因素是导致新疆农业碳排增加的主要驱动因素.据此,根据新疆实际合理优化调整农业产业结构,加快推进绿色农业现代化;加强生态环境建设,提高农业生产资料的利用效率;转变增长方式,走两型农业之路.%The study on Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission peak forecast and influence factors can make a scien-tific evaluation and reference for the development of low-carbon agriculture in Xinjiang. This paper estimated agri-cultural carbon emissions in 1995-2014 based on 23 carbon sourcesfrom4 aspects, i. e. , the planting, livestock farming, farmland soil, and straw burning, analyzed its characteristic from time and space dimensions and structure using STIRPAT model, forecasted the peak value of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang in the future, and an-alyzed the factors affecting Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission by LMDI method. The results showed that, firstly, Xinjiang agricultural carbon emissions showed "rising volatility to continues rise" characteristics, carbon emissions increased from 1942. 7 × 104 t in 1995 to 3921. 3 × 104 t in 2014,with an average annual growth rate of 3. 77%. Secondly , there were significant regional differences. Kashi area was carbon emission intensity of"double high" ar-ea;Aletai and other 4 regions were low carbon and high carbon emission intensity areas; Urumqi and other 5 re-gions were "double low" areas; Changji Hui nationality and other 4 regions were high carbon emissions and low carbon emission intensity areas. Thirdly, Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission peak time was respectively in 2040 and 2029, the carbon emissions were 7457. 68 × 104 t and 4755. 23 × 104 t. Fourth, economic factors were the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, it put forward that it should adjust agricultural struc-ture, accelerate green agricultural modernization, strengthen the construction of the ecological environment, im-prove the utilization efficiency of agricultural means of production, and change the mode of growth.
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