文章以农地流转为研究视角，基于中国1988~2012年31个省域面板数据，综合运用固定效应模型与动态门限回归模型，检验农业科技投入对农业生产效率的驱动作用。固定效应模型的分析结果表明，科技投入对农业生产效率提升的效果，受到农地规模的制约；随后的动态面板门限模型显示，以户均农地规模表示的农地流转值存在两个显著的门限。当户均农地规模低于第一个门限值时，科技投入对农业生产效率的影响微弱。随着农地流转的推进，科技促农的效果逐步增强。但当农地面积跨越第二个门限，科技促农系数又降低。因此，在中国农业科技投入有限的常态约束下，应以农地流转政策为契机，协调好农地流转与科技投入的关系而非一味加大科技投入，优化农业科研的区域空间布局，增强科技对中国农业的驱动作用。同时也应采取措施避免农地流转过快带来的负面效应。%Taking the farmland circulation as the research object, based on panel data of 31 provinces from 1988-2012 in China, this paper analyzed the effect of agricultural research input on the agricultural production efficiency using the fixed effects panel model and the threshold effect model. The results showed:the farmland transfer directly affected agricultural production efficiency with non-linear characteristics. When the scale of agricultural land was lower than the first threshold, the scientific input had little effect on the agricultural productivity, but the effect would increase when the land transfer scale was promoted until the second threshold. Therefore, under the circumstance of the lack of agricultural science and technology input, it put forward that it should increase the rational input of the ag-ricultural science and technology, optimize regional spatial layout of agricultural research, enhance the productivity growth effect of agricultural research investment, and avoid the negative effect of excessive farmland transfer.
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