生态足迹是一种从生态学角度来衡量可持续发展程度的方法,通过生态足迹需求与自然生态系统的承载力进行比较来定量的判断某一国家或地区目前可持续发展的状态,以便对未来人类生存和社会经济发展做出科学规划和建议.生态足迹模型是农业可持续发展的定量测度标尺,主要反映人类开发利用农业资源的强度.研究采取宏观形势分析与微观数理模型实证相结合的研究方式,以生态足迹模型为评价手段,通过对2000～ 2013年山东省农业资源开发强度和生态系统承载力情况进行了定量分析,得出山东省人均生态赤字由2000年的3.662 2hm2/人增至2013年的7.709 4hm2/人,而2013年生态赤字率更是高达1709％的结论,在此基础上讨论分析了山东省严重生态赤字产生的原因主要为5点:一是人口的大量增加,从1980年到2013年,山东省人口增加了近2 500万;二是城镇化的快速推进,城镇化与农业生产相互争地的矛盾日益突出;三是耕作制度的改变、重用轻养和环境污染等造成地力、肥力下降迅速;四是水资源匮乏的加剧与地下水污染加重并存;五是人类活动干扰和环境污染加剧等因素导致自然生态系统的失衡加剧.由此提出应对措施,要改变山东省目前面临的生态状况,推进山东省农业健康可持续发展,就需要尊重自然发展规律,以资源环境承载力为硬性约束条件,大力调整农业产业结构,建立合理有序的五化同步发展步骤,建立健全法制约束机制,以五化协同为最终目标,实现人与自然的协调发展.%Ecological footprint is a method to measure the degree of sustainable development from the perspective of ecology.Whether a country or region is currently in a state of sustainable development will be judged quantitatively by comparing the ecological footprint demand and the carrying capacity of the natural ecological system.So it can make scientific planning and develop response measures for the environment and social economy development in the future.Ecological footprint model can carry quantitative analysis on the sustainable development of agriculture and reflect how agricultural resources are exploited and utilized.Combining the analysis of economic situation and the mathematical model in the study,the development intensity of agricultural resources and the carrying capacity of the ecological system in Shandong province during 2000-2013 were analyzed by using the ecological footprint model.The results showed that the per capita ecological deficit increased from 3.6622 hectares per person in 2000 to 7.7094 in 2013,and the rate of the ecological deficit increased to 1709％ in 2013 due to 5 reasons,such as a large increase in population in a short period of time,the rapid advance of the process of urbanization,the rapid decline of soil fertility and fertility because of the changes in planting habits,the over use of arable land,and the pollution caused by chemical fertilizers and pesticides,the lack of water resources and the aggravation of groundwater pollution,and the imbalance of the natural ecological system caused by human interference,environmental pollution and other factors.Finally,it put forward some countermeasures,such as promoting the sustainable development of agriculture in Shandong province,coordinating the development between man and nature,respecting the laws of nature,taking the resource environmental bearing capacity as the most important and unique constraints,adjusting the industrial structure of agriculture vigorously,and establish a rational and orderly development of synchronization about industrialization,information,urbanization,agricultural modernization and green.
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