Using the mathematic method of farmland gradation, this paper estimated the grain production capacity and yield increasing potentiality in different grade farmlands and different regions of Henan province, which can provide scientific basis for establishing grain production increasing measures. The results were as follows: (1) the grain productivity capacity of Henan province can reach over 70 million tons which was higher than the grain production aim of 65 million tons by the end of 2020. The average use intensity of agricultural land was 70% which showed there was a great potential for the grain production capacity in Henan province. (2) The spatial distribution patterns indicated that the production capacity in plain area was higher than that in mountain and hilly area. The highest grain production capacity area located in the piedmont Plain of Taihang Mountain, and the lowest was in the northwest area of Taihang Mountain. The high total production capacity areas were concentrated in the Huan-ghuai Plain, Nanyang Basin and Jiluyu Alluvial Plain, where were the main grain production areas in Henan province. (3) The production capacity was restrained by several factors, such as water and soil resources, agricultural science and technology, the farmer(s) work quality and the farmland infrastructure level and so on. It can be concluded that (1) the mathematic modeling method based on quantity and quality of cultivated land was available to estimate the grain production capacity. (2) Henan province had the ensuring capacity to reach the grain production aim by the end of 2020.%用基于农用地分等的模型法摸清河南不同区域不同等级耕地资源的粮食生产能力和增产潜力,为制定粮食增产措施提供科学依据.研究结果:(1)河南耕地可实现生产能力总产可达7 000万t以上,高于2020年生产6 500万t的粮食规划目标,土地利用强度平均约为70％,粮食生产能力有较大的增产潜力.(2)产能单产的空间分布整体表现出平原高于山地丘陵,最高在太行山前平原,最低在豫西北太行山地；总产集中分布在黄淮平原、南阳盆地和冀鲁豫低洼平原,这一区域是河南粮食核心区的重点区域,也应是今后重点建设的区域.(3)实现上述产能还受到“水土资源、科学技术、农民素质、基础设施抗灾能力不强”等因素的制约.必须克服制约因素,才能变为现实产量.研究结论:(1)基于耕地数量质量的数学模型方法估算耕地生产能力是可行的.(2)河南省有完成粮食生产目标的耕地资源保障能力.
展开▼
