为明确现阶段比利时输入中国牛精液携带施马伦贝格病毒的潜在入侵风险,基于世界动物卫生组织(Office International Des Epizooties,OIE)风险评估的框架,结合贝叶斯统计推断的方法,开展现阶段比利时拟输入中国牛精液产品携带施马伦贝格病毒(Schmallenberg virus,SBV)通过口岸贸易的输入量化风险评估.释放评估显示,比利时畜群存在SBV的释放风险.基于对比利时的SBV的监测监控体系、易感畜群监视、实验室诊断方法选择,结合检测方法和试剂有效性的参数化模拟,显示比利时牛精液供体动物SBV阳性预测值超过66.886 6％的概率不大于0.001 9.参照比利时2011年度出口到中国的精液批次标准,模拟现阶段比利时种用牛精液出口到中国市场每1批次中可能检出的假阴性概率在82.16％的置信区间内分布在0.001到0.006之间,即1 000批次精液的假阴性检出批次在82％的置信区间为1到6个批次,大于6个批次的假阴性概率小于13.63％％0,大于1个批次的概率大于95.80％.评估结论认为,从比利时输入有关的牛精液等产品将会对我国养殖畜群及其生态安全等产生较大的不确定性风险.%To explore the current risk of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) derived from the importation of bovine semen from Belgium bovine population,within the risk assessment framework of Office International Des Epizooties (OIE),Bayesian inference were applied,and quantitative risk analysis for the assumed batches volume of importation of bovine semen were conducted.Results showed that SBV existed within the bovine population of Belgium,integrated with the parameter modeling on applied diagnostic method and released assessment based on priori surveillance information,posteriori prevalance of positive predict value for donor animals were distributed less than 0.001 9 likelihood with more than 66.886 6％ probability.Based on the volume of annually bovine semen importation at 2011 from Belgium to China,The posterior probability modeling for at least one batch consignment semen of false negative detected at port entry were distributed between 0.001 to 0.006 (82.16％ CI),which means that there could have 6 batches false negative consignment detected at 86.36％ upper limit confidence at port entry if randomly choosing 1 000 batches semen consignment imported from Belgium,while the probability of getting more than 6 batches of false negative consignment were statistically less than 13.63％ probability,getting at least one false negative consignment were larger than 95.80％.Given the derived risk,assessment showed that importation of Belgium bovine semen could give a considerable impact on China animal husbandry.
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