目的：预测中国2010～2030年老年期痴呆患病情况。方法检索1990～2013年相关数据库及其他网络资源的相关资料，对28个研究应用Meta Analyst Beta3.13软件对其进行Meta分析，得出患病率。利用第六次人口普查数据预测2015年、2020年、2025年和2030年的各年龄段人数，继而得出相应患病人数。结果2030年老年期痴呆人数将达1645.6万人，男687.1万人，女958.5万人。年龄组60～64岁、65～69岁、70～74岁、75～79岁、80～84岁、≥85岁年龄组患病人数分别为105.4万、138.7万、160.7万、309.6万、324.7万、606.5万。结论如果没有相应的预防措施，中国老年期痴呆患病人数在未来20年里将会大幅增长。2030年老年期痴呆患病人数为2010年的2.8倍。%Objective To provide updated estimates of dementia prevalence in China.Methods Probabilities of dementia inci-dence were calculated from meta-analysis.The sixth census data was used to predict the number of all ages in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,and then got number of cases.Results In 2030,there were 16.5 million individuals aged 60 years or older with dementia,6.9 million male and 9.6 million female.Of these,1.1 million were between 60 and 64 years,1.4 million were between 65 and 69 ears,1.6 million were between 70 and 74 years,3.1 million were between 75 and 79 years,3.2 million were between 80 and 84 years,and 6.1 million were 85 years or older. Conclusions The number in China with dementia will increase dramatically in the next 20 years unless preventive measures are developed.
展开▼
